SSTN Mailbag: Trade Deadline Talk Abounds!

We're back! The SSTN Mailbag took an unexpected hiatus last week due to some unforeseen circumstances, but I'm back. As I said in a post earlier this week, rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated. I tried to add it up, but I'm fairly certain that last Friday was only the 5th time a Friday SSTN Mailbag has been missed in the...checks the calculator...6+ years the SSTN Mailbag has been published weekly. Not too shabby, if I do say so myself. Thanks to those of you who reached out to me between last week and this week to check in and see that everything was OK here - it was greatly appreciated.

Without further ado, let's get into it. We have a ton of trade deadline talk this week, and rightfully so. The Yankees clearly need supplementation leading up to the trade deadline if they hope to make a run in the playoffs, and maybe even win the AL East. The Yankees have clear needs on the pitching staff and at 3B. Cashman made a reasonably firm statement about being ready to deal this year, which is a different tone than he generally strikes leading up to the trade deadline. We'll see if this is bluster, or if cards are on the table. The Yankees do have assets other teams want, both on the big league roster and in the minors, so there are deals to be made if the Yankees are feeling trigger happy. We'll see what happens.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we've got a ton of trade deadline talk. Let's get at it:

Beisbolyank offers the following trade: Spencer Jones to the Diamondbacks for Shelby Miller and Alek Thomas

There is absolutely no shot that I'd deal Spencer Jones for that combination of players. Alek Thomas was once a very interesting prospect, but he's pretty close to proving that he won't hit big league pitching. His approach at the plate is awful, and it keeps him from using his other offensive tools to his advantage. At best, he's a reclamation project or a 4th outfielder. You don't trade someone with Spencer Jones' potential (even if I'm the low-man on Jones) for someone like Thomas.

In a vacuum, I'm very interested in Shelby Miller, and I think he fits very nicely into a plausible trade deadline plan for the Yankees. Many people have forgotten, but Miller began his resurgence by retooling in the Yankees' farm system, so the Yankees are very familiar with Miller and what he brings to the table. I would bet that he's on their radar this trade deadline season, so I think Shelby Miller could easily be the target of a standalone trade, or a secondary piece in a larger trade (paired with either Gallen or Suarez possibly).

That said, neither Thomas nor Miller have enough value to make me part with Spencer Jones.

Alan B. asks: Andy: With Alex Jackson now traded away, what do you think happens come trade deadline time with three guys who, at least in my opinion, have no future in the Bronx but are Mainstays in the AAA lineup - 1B TJ Rumfield & OFs Brian de La Cruz and Everson Pereira. Will any of them be traded or released post-trade deadline?

I think that it's entirely likely that 2/3 of that crew is gone post-trade deadline. Unless the Yankees believe that Rumfield will compete to be part of the 1B solution next season (highly unlikely) and given the dearth of 1B options around the league, I wouldn't be surprised if Rumfield has a bit of value as a secondary piece in a larger trade, particularly to a team looking for offense now and in the future.

Pereira is an interesting case. I think he might yet have value to the Yankees as a 4th outfielder as soon as next season, as he's a decent defender at 3 outfield positions and has pop. His gaps as a player have been oft-discussed, and I won't rehash them here, but I think he has an uphill climb to allow his obvious tools to play to their potential at the MLB level. The Yankees recognize this fact, but I'm sure there are rebuilding teams that would gladly take a shot at reclaiming some value there. Like Rumfield, I think Pereira has a bit of value as a secondary or tertiary piece in a larger trade.

De La Cruz is worthwhile depth, and not much more; I don't see him moving at the deadline.

Fuster asks: suppose the Brewers, who seem to have a sufficiency of starters, decide to dump Cortes.

would the Yankees be able to use him as a reliever

and would the Brewers send him back to New York at little cost?

This is a very interesting idea. The Brewers are known for their willingness to trade from areas of strength in the pursuit of playoff success, and they suddenly have an embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation. Nestor is on the comeback trail, and claims to be healthy. The Yankees have plenty of familiarity with Nestor, and we know that Nestor is comfortable in New York. There are certainly worse ideas floating around out there.

However, I have real concerns. I think Nestor still has a problematic elbow, and I'm sure the Yankees have concerns about his medical history, something they have more information about than anyone else in the market for pitching. Nestor's velocity has been down a tick or two as he seeks to make a comeback, which is also of concern to me.

However, I do see the appeal for the Yankees. A lefty who has experience starting and relieving, who gives a variety of looks to opposing hitters. I love Nestor, which also factors into my thinking, but I have to use my head here. I am concerned enough about his elbow, that I grudgingly stay away, but I'd also root for him to prove me wrong whoever he plays for.

David G. asks: What would your ideal trade deadline look like for the Yankees? There seem to be a lot of suitors and not a lot of sellers, but maybe that will change. Can the Yankees fill all of their needs?

Well, I have no idea if it's realistic to fill all of the team's needs, but I'm sure Cashman will try. I'm going to preface my ideas by saying that I think that I think prices might be higher than what I'm listing. In raw value, I think my trade proposals are close, but given the realities of supply and demand, I even expect certain prices to be much, much higher, which will limit what the Yankees can do at the trade deadline. If I were GM, though, this is what an ideal trade deadline would look like:

Trade 1

JC Escarra and Bryce Cunningham (pick your favorite mid-tier pitching prospect) to SD for Adrian Morejon

Trade 2

Rafael Flores and Henry Lalane to ARI for Zac Gallen

Trade 3

Will Warren to MIN for Willi Castro and Griffin Jax

OR

Spencer Jones and Ben Rice to MIN for Willi Castro and Griffin Jax

Trade 4

Roc Riggio, TJ Rumfield, and Everson Pereira to CLE for Daniel Schneemann

Wow! That's a ton of deals!!! Here's the rationale for each:

The Padres do not have a big league caliber catcher, and it's killing them. There have been whispers that they are willing to deal from their incredibly stout bullpen to get a catcher. We have also heard that the Yankees are fielding calls on JC Escarra, as multiple teams think he could be a starting caliber catcher with more playing time (I, for one, think those teams are right). I think Escarra has more value than most would assume. Adrian Morejon is a fantastic relief pitcher who happens to pitch left-handed. He throws really hard, sitting 97+ and often touching 100 with a great slider and sinker combination. He is exactly the type of reliever the Yankees need. He won't come cheap, so in addition to Escarra, I think the Yankees need to also deal a pitcher in their top-10 prospect list. I picked Cunningham, but the Padres may ask for more. This nets the Yankees a wipeout bullpen arm, one of two they desperately need.

A lot of people don't like Gallen, noting his diminished stuff and waning command. I look and see some fairly simple mechanical and pitch mix tweaks that will get Gallen right and producing like a mid-rotation innings eater again. His trade stock has dropped, but in this environment, he won't be a throwaway. Flores is a top-10 prospect in the Yankees' system on the fringes of most top-100 list (and on the back-half of some). I think the Yanks also need to give the D'Backs a starting pitching prospect, though I may be light with Lalane, I went for ceiling. They may ask for someone closer to Ben Hess or ERC, which isn't unreasonable. I'd say yes to Ben Hess and no to ERC. This gives the Yanks a real innings-eater with experience in the playoffs and tough races.

My most controversial trade idea: Willi Castro and Griffin Jax. I am concerned about Eugenio Suarez. Not only does he not walk much and he strikes out a ton, but he got hit in the hand at the All Star game. No thanks. Willi Castro does a ton right at the plate, and while he's not a premium defender at 3B, he can handle the position just fine with a really good arm. Griffin Jax is a premium reliever, with premium velocity, and years of team control. He is valuable, but the Twins need pieces at more critical spots around the diamond. Will Warren is a premium trade piece who has high-end talent, the type of young pitcher the Twins would kill to have. If they don't want one piece, I'd be willing to part with Spencer Jones and Ben Rice. This trade would hurt, but I think these pieces fit the Yankees far better than the pieces dealt away, and gives both teams talent at areas of need. I stewed over this trade a lot, but the more I look at it, the more sense it makes.

Lastly, I think the Yankees need to improve the Peraza/Vivas spot on the roster. Schneemann plays everywhere on the infield, and does it every bit as well as Peraza, and he hits a little. He's a bit over his head a starter (which is what he's doing for Cleveland), but given their financial situation, I think they would gladly take a few upper-level prospects that could help them re-tool quickly. Riggio has gained a lot of standing in prospect circles, and I think he's got a chance to be a starter in the bigs at 2B; Rumfield could probably handle big league pitching right now, and needs a chance to develop at the big league level with someone; and Pereira doesn't fit into the Yankees' plans, but Cleveland's outfield is wide open. I think this helps both teams.

Some of these deals are out-of-the-box, and I'm not sure how available Jax, Morejon, or Schneemann really are, but if asked what "ideal" looks like to me, this is it. It's not as flashy as some other moves, but this would make the Yankees real contenders.