The 2026 Yankees Right Now (Starting Pitching)

by Paul Semendinger

January 14, 2026

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As it stands right now, the Yankees of 2026 might be a mediocre to poor team.

As it stands right now, the Yankees have not addressed many of their needs for 2026.

Let's take a quick look at the 2026 Yankees as they stand right now.

Starting Pitching:

Gerrit Cole -

Cole will be out to begin the season. It seems that he won't be back until at least June. It may take longer. Assuming he comes back, what should the Yankees expect?

Gerrit Cole was the Cy Young Award Winner in 2023. In baseball, that was a long time ago. Cole did not pitch in 2025. In 2024, he simply wasn't great. He was very good, or at least kind-of very good, but he certainly wasn't great.

In 2024, Cole made only 17 starts. He pitched 95 innings meaning he averaged about 5 1/2 innings per start. Neither of those numbers are great.

In 2024, Cole's ERA+ was 118, the second lowest since he became an "Ace" in 2018. Cole's worst ERA+ year was 2022 when it was 112.

Wait. What? Cole's worst year since 2018 was 2022?

Let's take a look:

2022 - 3.50 ERA, 112 ERA+ (Not a Great Year)

2023 - 2.63 ERA, 165 ERA+ (Cy Young Year!)

2024 - 3.41 ERA, 118 ERA+ (Not a Great Year)

2025 - Did Not Pitch

In 2024, Cole's Strikeouts Per Nine Innings were his lowest since 2018, his Walks Per Nine Innings were his highest, his WHIP was his highest, on and on...

So many want to assume that Cole will return as a Cy Young Award level pitcher, but that just doesn't seem likely. What is more realistic is that Cole is on the downside of his greatness. If all goes well, he should be a good pitcher, but he certainly doesn't project to be an ace. If the Yankees get the 2024 version of Cole, that would be very optimistic. Anything else is simply unrealistic. Completely.

Carlos Rodon -

Rodon will also be coming back from an injury. Indications are that he'll be back sooner than Gerrit Cole.

It should go without mentioning that pitchers returning from injury usually take a while to get into a groove. There is usually an adjustment period.

In 2025, Rodon had his best year as a Yankee. He went 18-9, 3.09 with an ERA+ of 132. That was terrific. I believe it is optimistic, unrealistically optimistic, to expect Rodon to perform at that level, his best season over the last three - since he became a Yankee. What is more realistic, for an 11-year big leaguer, is to expect that he performs at or near his career norms, or even his Yankees norms (three seasons). If he does that, he's a slightly better than average pitcher.

Rodon's Career ERA+ is 110.

Rodon's Yankees ERA+ is 102.

Max Fried -

The other day I wrote the following about Max Fried:

"The last time Max Fried had over 30 starts in a season was 2022. The next year he started only 14 games.

Last year Max Fried started 32 games. That was the most he ever reached in his career.

His 195.1 innings were also the most of his career."

Last year Fried was great. But, as noted, the Yankees worked him hard. When he pitches, over the course of his career, he's been great. His career ERA+ (141) is higher than Gerrit Cole's. He has made at least 28 starts in four of the last five seasons.

Since Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon will not begin the season in the rotation, the Yankees will need Max Fried to be their ace again. Of all the starting pitchers the Yankees have, absent of the fact that he worked harder last year than ever before, he should be the closest to a sure thing.

Luis Gil -

A year ago many fans and writers wrote about Luis Gil as an ace. "He won the Rookie of the Year."

No one is writing that way any longer.

Battling his own injuries, Gil actually pitched well last year. His 123 ERA+ was higher than the 115 he posted in his Rookie of the Year campaign. But... and this is the big concern, his strikeouts per nine innings went from 10.1 in 2024 to 6.5 in 2025. He also walks far too many batters (5.2 per nine innings) and he doesn't pitch deep into games (he averaged 5.18 innings per start last year).

There is talent there and there once was a live arm. There might be that again, but who knows. Heading into 2026, Gil is a big question mark.

Clarke Schmidt -

When Schmidt has pitched, he has been very good. Over the last two seasons, his ERA+ is 132. Impressive!

But, he made only 30 starts, combined, between 2024 and 2025 and he, too, is coming off an injury and will not be starting the season. When he returns is anyone's guess - maybe June. Maybe not...

Cam Schlittler -

Yankees fans love to get excited about brand new bright shiny objects and then quickly sour on them. (See Luis Gil, Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, and about a gazillion others...) Cam Schlittler is the latest bright new shiny object that has the fans excited, for now.

Schlittler pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts last year. His ERA+ was 138. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings. His WHIP and other numbers closely mirrored his career minor league performance. He just might be the real deal.

He seems very good, very healthy, and should be one of the most consistent starters for the big club.

The Yankees need Schlittler to be as good as his numbers make him out to be.

Will Warren -

What pitcher led the American league in starts in 2025? Yes, Will Warren.

That was the good news. The bad news was he was a below average MLB pitcher as indicated by his 92 ERA+. Warren has talent. He has upside. He's young. He could be very good. He was durable in 2025.

To begin the year, it would be much too optimistic to assume that he is anything more than a reliable fifth starter.

Ryan Weathers -

The Yankees just acquired Weathers yesterday. Tim Kabel has an article on the deal coming at 2:00 today and there will be another from E.J. Fagan coming soon as well.

Weathers has a 12-23 record for his career. His career ERA+ is 85. His career ERA is 4.93. He has never pitched even 100 innings in a season with 2026 slated to be his sixth MLB season.

Like so many above, the best one can say about Weathers is that he has potential and he might be good. Judging by his performance thus far, that seems to be a very (very) long shot.

Ryan Yarbrough -

He has been on five teams in eight years. His lifetime ERA+ is 98. He has twice made more than 10 starts in a season.

Yarbrough might be a nice swing man. At this point in his career, he is not a starting pitcher on a championship-level ballclub.

Conclusion -

If Gerrit Cole returns to Cy Young form, and Carlos Rodon to close to that status, and if Max Fried stays healthy, and Clarke Schmidt returns, and Cam Schlittler is for real, and Luis Gil can go deeper into games and walk fewer guys, and if Will Warren stays healthy, and if a minor leaguer or two ascend to be effective big league pitchers, and etc., the starting pitching would be fine.

All of that, obviously, is not likely.

This is a starting rotation with a ton of questions and not much depth. It's a collection of players who have been injured and need to return at their peak levels. That's just not likely.

What is more likely is that the 2026 Yankees rotation will be league-average, at best, once the injured pitchers return. Until then, it'll be a below average rotation And, by the time Cole and Rodon, and Schmidt all return, the Yankees might be a second-division club.

The Yankees needed to acquire a top starting pitcher over the winter. They didn't do that.