The Yankees Should Make a Qualifying Offer to Trent Grisham

By E.J. Fagan

November 5, 2025

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Just a year ago, I was surprised that the Yankees didn’t non-tender Trent Grisham. He was coming off a dreadful 0.5 WAR season. While he was still a solid center fielder, he never regained the blazing speed he featured in his first few seasons. He was bad enough in 2024 that he couldn’t muscle Alex Verdugo out of an outfield spot. $5 million felt like a lot for a not great backup outfielder.

We all know how wrong that take was:

Grisham transformed himself into a completely different player in 2025. He slugged 34 home runs and led off for the league’s best offense. His Statcast page is fascinating: he’s got some of the best plate discipline in the game: 99th percentile chase rate, 86th percentile square up rate, 96th percentile walk rate. Here’s how that changed from previous years:

He’s always taken a lot of pitches. The difference in 2025 was, basically, that he swung and missed less and did more damage when he made contact. He wasn’t swinging harder, just better. I wonder if Grisham benefitted more than the typical player from the TRAJEKT machine more than most.

Either way, he wasn’t just getting lucky. If anything, his results were a little worse than his batted balls.

He was also very consistent throughout the year, never dipping below average for a 30-game stretch:

The tradeoff was defense. Grisham slowed down so much that he’s slower than a mid-30s Aaron Judge. His reputation is far better than the actual results. Grisham should be probably move over to a corner and lean into his new slugger skills.

He’s now a free agent. The Yankees have five days to make him a $22 million qualifying offer or let him go.

I think they should make him the offer. But here’s the thing: I don’t really want him on the 2026 Yankees. And I don’t really care about the 4th round pick they would get if he signs elsewhere.

Would Grisham accept a 1 year, $22 million contract? I think he would. He’s going to be in an odd situation as a free agent. Slugging corner outfielders with a much longer track record than Grisham like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez struggled to get paid last year. Santander got 5 years/$14 million AAV once you account for deferrals. Hernandez got 3/20. Both are a bit older and worse defensively than Grisham. He might not sniff $22 million in AAV. The Athletic predicts that he’ll sign for 2 years, $30 million.

He’s 29 years old, so Grisham would have a shot at a big payday a year from now if he puts together a second consecutive strong season. Even then, he might not top $22 million for the season.

But I said that I don’t want Trent Grisham on the 2026 roster. While Grisham was excellent last year, he doesn’t make a lot of sense on a roster with Jasson Dominguez. Both players are poor defensive contributors who hit righties and should sit against lefties. But Dominguez is 22 years old, more athletic and hopefully has room to grow. I’d rather spend $22 million elsewhere.

Specifically, I want Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. Both are better all around than Grisham. But I have trouble seeing the Yankees paying one of them and also $22 million for Grisham.

That said, there’s no guarantee that the Yankees sign either of them. If they don’t, Grisham is the third best outfielder on the market by a pretty big margin. He might even provide some leverage in negotiations with Cody Bellinger, who seems like a perfect fit in New York.

If they do sign Tucker or Bellinger, they can trade Grisham. He’ll have a lot of value on a one year deal. The Yankees need a short term starting pitcher, maybe you could flip Grisham for someone like Robbie Ray or Jameson Taillon?

What I don’t want is a long term deal for Grisham, even at a low AAV. His speed loss reminds me way too much of Aaron Hicks. I’ll take Grisham at 29, but I have zero faith that he’ll be a productive hitter at 33.