The Tuesday Discussion: 2025 Predictions!

March 25, 2025

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This week, we asked our writers to respond to the following:

It's prediction time - provide predictions for 2 players who will perform well above or below expectations, and give your overall prediction for the Yankees' 2025 season.

Here are their replies:

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Lincoln Mitchell - I am not sure this qualifies as exceeding expectations, but I think Cody Bellinger will have a very good season. He has been somewhat forgotten in the chatter about Wells leading off, Dominguez breaking through and other spring training news, but I think Bellinger has a good year and will be the best non-Judge hitter on the team. I hope I am wrong, but I think the expectations on Austin Wells are too high. My sense is that he establishes himself as a useful big league catcher, but not a star. I suspect he will hit fewer than 20 home runs and have an OPS+ of less than 110. That is still valuable for a catcher, but not good enough to be a major contributor with the bat. My prediction is the Yankees win between 88-90 games, get the second or third wildcard and do not advance as far as the ALCS.

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Cary Greene - Using STEAMERS as my projection service reference - I'm going with Austin Wells as my first candidate to obliterate his .233/.316/.418 triple slash projections and his .320 wOBA/109 wRC+. STEAMERS forecasts Wells will have a 17 HR, 59 RBI season and this seems a little light to me. Wells has been getting on base very well this spring and I think this trend is a sign that teams are going to start pitching around him due to his dangerous left-handed power. If Wells can elevate is OBP while also building upon his projected power numbers, his production could dramatically increase and this would cause his stat line to scream, "he's an All-Star!" 

Though there are some very good catchers in the American League that Wells would need to nose out in order to be an All-Star, I think his hot start in Spring Training might just bleed into April, May and June. It's likely that he'll cool of as the season goes along, which would cause him to regress a bit offensively but mark me down for believing Wells will ride a hot start all the way to becoming a possible All-Star. Could Wells bash 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs? I think it's possible but I'm thinking it's more likely that he'll hit somewhere around 25 homers and knock in 75 runs. 

My second breakout candidate on the Yankees is actually J.C. Escarra. STEAMERS has him down for a .289 wOBA/87 wRC+ season, but I point to his .405 wOBA/141 wRC+ stat line this spring as an indication that the Yankees may have captured lightning in a bottle regarding Escarra. Will he outperform STEAMERS .233/.299/.352 triple slash line and a projected 4 home runs and 17 RBI's? I think it's very likely that he will smash the projections - mainly due to potentially getting a big share of the playing time vacated by Giancarlo Stanton. If Escarra can stay hot, he'll likely crush projections. 

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Paul Semendinger - I am equally optimistic and pessimistic about the 2025 Yankees.  I hope the kids all perform well and I hope (against reason) that the starting pitching can be even league average.  As such, I really can't predict how they will do.  This could be a magical season.  It could also be a disaster.  

I think they'll be better than .500, so let's say 85 wins.

One specific player is going to bat .260 with 17 homers and 24 stolen bases.  Some people see him having a 30/30 season.  That player has exceeded 30 steals only once in a season.  He's also never hit even 25 homers.  That player is Jazz Chisholm.  I guess that's way below what so many expect.  I think what I predict is very reasonable.

Austin Wells has a lifetime batting average of .260...  in the minor leagues.  So many are hoping that he becomes a star.  Maybe he will, but, again, I think a lot of that is just hopeful thinking.  With so many so high on him, I think he'll also come in way below expectations.

Finally, when a player has a season like Aaron Judge just had, many predict that he'll stay that good.   He has now had two seasons where he accumulated 10.8 WAR.  Lou Gehrig had one season that good.  Joe DiMaggio never did that.  Mickey Mantle had two.  (I could go on.)  Expecting Judge to have a 10+ WAR season is asking for a miracle.  He should have a great season, let's say .287/39/98, 149 OPS+.  That would be terrific.  Judge did that once, in 2021.  It was a 5.9 WAR season.  I think a 6.0 WAR season is a realistic expectation for Judge.  For many fans, that will also be a season below their (unreasonably) high expectations.  

Those three players should do fine, if not great (Judge), but the expectations for them are so high that they'll all be seen as disappointments.

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Andrew Hefner - I think the Yankees will go 92-70, finishing second in the AL East, and in the second overall Wild Card spot. I think that Ben Rice will have an outstanding season, and will end up being the everyday first baseman by August at the latest. I'm hoping for over 20 home runs and a fairly consistent .280+ batting average with far better exit velo as he has already displayed in spring. I think that Jasson Dominguez's season will not be as impressive as his poor defensive performance in his time in the majors and spring will catch up to him, as well as the bad luck he has had with most major league pitching thus far. 

Happy Opening Day to all and enjoy! 

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Mike Whiteman - Two players who will perform above expectations:

Cody Bellinger - A player who really wants to be a Yankee and will embrace being a Yankee centerfielder. He hits 35-40 home runs, is an 8-WAR player. 

Anthony Volpe - I think he hits with enough pop to become a 5-WAR player. 

Two players who will perform below expectations: 

Jasson Dominguez - I think long term he will be a very good, maybe great MLB player, but I could see something like a .240/.320/.440 slash with about 20 homers, 20 steals, and some "teachable moments" in the outfield. Remember, he's only 22 years old. 

Jazz Chisholm - He's a fun player and I think will be a nice upgrade at second base. That being said, it seems like expectations will be high for a career 104 OPS+ player. I think he hits 20 home runs, steals about 30 bases, bats about .250 and is a 4-WAR player. A good, but not great player, and that's OK. 

Overall Prediction: Yanks come back hungry in 2025 after the World Series loss, wins the division with help of Brian Cashman pitching acquisitions this summer, reaches the World Series and beats the.....Phillies(!) in the World Series. 

Take it to the bank!

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Tim Kabel - I predict that the Yankees will win 93 games and will win the American League East. I do not think it will be smooth sailing all year, as they will have their annual soon as  they always do under Boone. my friend Brian, has coined the phrase “Boone swoon”, to describe the phenomenon. This year, he might not survive the tailspin. 

I predict that Jasson Dominguez will hit 31 home runs and steal over 50 bases and win the Rookie of the Year award. 

I predict that Ben Rice will really come into his own this season, notifying any need was to rush Giancarlo Stanton back to the lineup. I think Rice will hit at least 37 home runs this year. We may never see Giancarlo Stanton on the field for the Yankees again.

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Andy Singer - For a full list of my predictions, check out my post from this past Sunday.

2 UP: I think that the Yankees will have two 30/30 players - Jazz Chisholm and Jasson Dominguez.

2 Down: Aaron Judge will still be fantastic, but the decline will begin to some extent, as Judge will bat .285/.400/.595, with 47 HR. He's still among the best hitters in baseball, but there's at least some argument for bumping him beneath the top-2 in baseball.

The Yankees will continually look for right-handed bats this season, as Oswald Peraza barely holds his own against lefties, and is unusable against righties, despite playing great defense. He's playable on the short-side of a platoon, and that has value, but it doesn't stop the team from looking for upgrades.

Overall: The Yankees win 92 games and win the AL East. There are some really rough times, especially in June as the pitching depth collapses, but they right the ship with mid-season acquisitions. The Yanks get a rematch with the Dodgers in the World Series. This time, the Yankees catch a heater, and win in 7 games.