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The Tuesday Discussion: Aaron Judge’s Future

This week we’re asking about Aaron Judge’s career home run milestones. Aaron Judge currently has 110 lifetime homers. Let’s ask the tough questions…

Will Aaron Judge reach 150? Will he reach 200? Will he reach 250? Will he reach 300?

To conclude, how many lifetime homers will Aaron Judge finish his career with?

Our writers responded:

Lincoln Mitchell – I think Aaron Judge ends up with around 320 home runs. I see him having two big years that get him another 80 or so and then about 6-7 injury years of about twenty each. I really hope I am wrong and that he can get 5-6 healthy years.

Matthew Cohen – If Judge could remain healthy, I’d guess around 450.

As it is, I’m thinking 30 per year for 5 years, 25 per year for 2 and then 20 per year for 4. A total of 390.

Derek McAdam – Aaron Judge is one of those players that I actually believe will have a nice resume by the time he retires. It only took him a little over three seasons to get to 110 home runs, which is still very respectable (he was called up in August 2016). He also has had a couple injury stints over the past few seasons and still managed to come close to 30 home runs in both 2018 and 2019. Entering his age 28 season, I believe Judge will have at least 300 home runs by the end of his career. He is full of natural power, which may allow for him to hit more home runs when he reaches his mid 30s. Judge may have his problems with injuries now, but he will figure things out in the long run.

Paul Semendinger – Boy, I hope I’m wrong about this. I hope I’m very very very wrong about this…I just have this feeling that we saw the best of Aaron Judge in 2017. That might have been his peak. I hope not, but it might have been. Judge just can’t seem to stay healthy enough to stay in the line-up consistently. I don’t see that improving as he ages. With his injury this year, I wonder if he’ll even hit 25 homers. If a player breaks down this much in his 20’s, what will his future hold? Will he be healthier as he ages? I don’t see it. I’m guessing that he barely reaches 250. I hope I’m wrong. I see maybe four more 20-25 home run seasons over the next four years (his age 28-31 seasons) and then he adds a few more to close out his career. (Did I say that I hope I’m wrong about this?)

Mike Whiteman – I think the world of Aaron Judge and love to watch him play. I think the rib injury he sustained that still ails him is the risk of a huge ballplayer playing all out, and expect more like it throughout his career. So, I don’t think we can expect him to play more than 120-130 games per season on average. That’s not a criticism of Judge, nor an inspiration to trade him, just the reality for the Yanks. I do think it keeps his career numbers in the 325-350 home run range. An excellent career, and a memorable Yankee, but we’ll ask ourselves often “what if”.

Ethan Semendinger – Currently at 110 career home runs, it appears as though around 100-110 games and 25-30 homers is what we should be expecting out of Aaron Judge for these next few seasons. Baseball Reference projections place him at 30 HR’s, and of the 5 projections on Fangraphs.com the lowest has him at 29 HR’s and the highest at 33 HR’s. Running with this, and expecting that Judge has probably another 8 years left at this production of about 28 HR’s per year (which puts him through his age 34 season) and then adding an additional 2 years of about 20 HR’s (lets say another 37 over those 2 years), I’m going to say that Aaron Judge ends up with 371 career home runs after his age 36 season.

Andy Singer – Aaron Judge has hit a homer approximately once every 12.88 ABs during his young career thus far. Tempering expectations for a prime that is stunted by injuries, but still giving him credit for one or two completely healthy years, let’s say he averages 425 ABs over the next 5 years. Based on his current homer rate, he would average 32.99 HR/year over that span…I’m going to give him credit for 33 HR/year. That’s 165 HR. Beyond those 5 years, let’s say he has 4 “twilight years” thereafter, during which he averages 20 HR. That’s an additional 80 HR. Add it all up, and you get 355 HR. I’m going to go with that as a fair outcome for someone like Judge.

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