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The Tuesday Discussion – THE 2021 YANKEES and HOME RUNS!

This week we asked our writers:

“On the eve of Spring Training, please make the following (way too early) predictions:

How many home runs will the 2021 Yankees hit?

Of those home runs, how many will Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combine for?”

Here are their responses…


Mike Whiteman – The 2021 Yankees power will be a bit reduced due to changes in the ball, but will still hit 240 home runs, 85 combined from Judge and Stanton.


Michael Saffer – I think between Judge and Stanton we will see a combined 40 home runs (Judge 25, Stanton 15). I know it’s early but I also think someone else will hit more home runs than either of them respectively… maybe Hicks?


Paul Semendinger – To do this, I needed to figure on the team player-by-player. I went through the players with as much objectivity as I could and determined that the Yankees will hit 261 homers this year. WOW! (I thought I was being very realistic and somewhat pessimistic with my player-by-player projections.)

In 2021, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will blast 71 bombs between them.

Here are the other totals I came up with: Sanchez (23), Voit (29), LeMahieu (12), Torres (31), Urshela (13), Frazier (26), Hicks (21), Judge (37), Stanton (34), Higgy (11), Bruce (14), All Others (10).

If this comes true, oh my!, what a season it’ll be!


Lincoln Mitchell – I think the Yankees hit around 185 home runs. The slightly deader ball will contribute to that lower than might be expected number. Stanton and Judge will combine for 55 home runs.


Chris O’Connor – The Yankees hit 94 home runs in 2020, which projects to about 254 in a 162 game season. In 2019, they hit 306 and in 2018, they hit 267. With the ball being “de-juiced” in 2021, I expect home runs to take a slight decrease leaguewide, but the Yankees are still a powerhouse lineup. Guys like Judge, Stanton, Voit, and Gleyber all have 30+ home run power, not to mention potential big seasons from Gio Urshela, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez. I really hope Judge and Stanton stay healthy for around 130 games each and I think that their yoga/flexibility offseason routine can only help. I’ll say 65 home runs between Judge and Stanton and 260 for the team.

*** Ethan Semendinger – The record for Home Runs hit in a season is 307 by the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Now, the Yankees have a formidable “Three True Outcomes” lineup (minus DJ LeMahieu for the most part). With this, I’m going to go with 268 Home Runs. It’s an unconventional number, but it would mean each spot in the line-up hit around 25 homers each, provided that Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge combine for 87. I don’t think that is an unreasonable number if both superstars have a healthy season.


Andy Singer – In the last full season played, the 2019 Yankees hit 306 home runs, with 237 of those coming from the top-10 contributors to an injury-ravaged roster. We think the ball may be a bit more dead in 2021, but no one knows for sure what that will mean for home run totals across baseball. I, for one, think there is enough raw power in the Yankee lineup that home run totals will not be down by much, if at all. Going around the diamond, I think full seasons from Voit, Judge, Stanton, Frazier, Torres, and even Sanchez will produce some truly stunning power figures. The top-10 contributors to the home run totals in 2019 averaged 23.7 home runs, so I’m going to say that this year’s lineup (with even more power on paper) is capable of averaging 27+ homers per player, with a slightly less powerful bench…so I think the numbers will be similar to 2019, but I’m going to say that the Yankees are healthier than in years past, so they slug a new record, 315 home runs.

For the Yankees to achieve that record, Judge and Stanton each have to play at least 125 games, which I think is doable. I think they’ll combine for 80 home runs – one of them will get hurt for some length of time pinching their home run total, while the other has a healthy year, which leads to a monster sum of home runs…let’s say 45+.


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