The Yankees vs. the AL East

by EJ Fagan

January 26, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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When I made my predictions for 2024, I predicted that the AL East would take a step back. That wasn’t a well-researched argument, but rather my observations about the amount of talent exiting the Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays, as well as the luckiness of the 2023 Baltimore Orioles.

It’s time to do more research. We’re going to rank the AL East teams at every hitting position. We’ll do pitching another day. Let’s get into it.

Catcher

1. Orioles: Adley Ruschman

2. Blue Jays: Alejandro Kirk

3. Yankees: Jose Trevino

4. Red Sox: Connor Wong

5. Rays: Rene Pinto

The Orioles are ten steps ahead of the division at catcher. Ruschman is too good. Maybe Trevino can repeat his 2022 season and get close, but I’m worried that we have a Buster Posey in the division. Kirk is a great hitter for the position and sneaky strong defender. The Red Sox and Rays are way behind.

First Base

1. Rays: Yandy Diaz

2. Yankees: Anthony Rizzo

3. Red Sox: Tristan Casas

4. Blue Jays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.

5. Orioles: Ryan O’Hearn

Vlad Guerrero Jr. is the most overrated player in the position. He posted a 2.8 fWAR in 2022 and 1.0 (!) in 2023. He can still hit, but his defense is abysmal. The Blue Jays need to DH him as soon as possible. Yandy Diaz is the hidden star of the AL East. Just salivate at this Statcast line:

I guess the good news is that at 32 years old, he might have just had his career season. Rizzo is a solid mid-tier player here, but the other four are pretty interchangeable. The division is strong at first.

Second Base

1. Yankees: Gleyber Torres

2. Rays: Brandon Lowe

3. Blue Jays: David Schneider

4. Red Sox: Vaugh Grissom

5. Orioles: Jordan Westburn

Torres is the best second baseman in the division, and I’m confident that it isn’t all that close. Lowe is still productive, but not the star hitter he looked like from 2019-2021. Schneider isn’t going to post a .400 OBP again. Grissom and Westburn are far behind. Big Yankees win here.

Shortstop

1. Blue Jays: Bo Bichette

2. Orioles: Jackson Holliday

3. Yankees: Anthony Volpe

4. Red Sox: Trevor Story

5. Rays: Jose Cabarello

Volpe was a top prospect. Holliday is the top prospect. We should continue to remember the volatility of prospects, but it’s hard not to rank Holliday over Volpe. He might struggle, but Volpe needs to prove that he’s better than an 8th hitter before I rank Holliday higher. The Rays are huge losers now that Wander Franco is gone forever.

Third Base

1. Red Sox: Rafael Devers

2. Orioles: Gunnar Henderson

3. Rays: Isaac Paredes

4. Yankees: DJ LeMahieu

5. Blue Jays: Cavan Biggio

The Yankees are clearly a tier below the division at third. Devers is elite. Henderson was strong in 2023 and has lots of room to grow. Paredes had a sneaky 4.0 WAR season. Only the Blue Jays are clearly behind them after losing Matt Chapman to free agency.

Right Field

1. Yankees: Juan Soto

2. Blue Jays: George Springer

3. Orioles: Anthony Santander

4. Rays: Josh Lowe

5. Red Sox: Wilyer Abreu

Easy win for the Yankees. Soto laps the field here. Springer is solid, but clearly in his decline phase. Santander was below average in xwOBA last year, but took advantage of Camden Yards’ short right field really well. Abreu and Lowe are solid sleepers, but without much track record in the majors.

Center Field

1. Yankees: Aaron Judge

2. Orioles: Cedric Mullins

3. CF: Jarren Duran

4. Blue Jays: Kevin Kiermaier

5. Rays: Jose Siri

Is Aaron Judge really the Yankees centerfielder? Because if he is, Judge is the best centerfielder in baseball. For now, that’s the verdict. Later, he might make the Yankees the standout winner at another position. The rest of the group is pretty weak. Duran has a short track record but was strong in 2024. The others are all glove-first players not all that better than Trent Grisham. He can Dominguez might still be better than the group when Judge returns.

Left Field

1. Rays: Randy Arozarena

2. Yankees: Alex Verdugo

3. Orioles: Austin Hayes

4. Blue Jays: Dalton Varsho

5. Red Sox: Tyler O’Neill

Arozarena has developed into a consistent 125ish wRC+ hitter who plays awful defense in left despite his speed. That’s good enough to put him above an otherwise pretty average group. Verdugo, Varsho and Hays are both strong 2-3 WAR players, but not standouts. The Red Sox are clear losers, and will probably have to play Yoshida in left when O’Neill goes down with an injury.

Designated Hitter:

1. Red Sox: Masataka Yoshida

2. Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle

3. Blue Jays: Danny Jansen

4. Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton

5. Rays: Richie Palacios

It always amazes me how little so many teams get out of designated hitter. It’s not because playing DH is secretly hard or anything. Modern hitting requires more athleticism than it used to. Teams hide their unathletic, broken down players at the position. There aren’t a lot of big, immobile sluggers who can still hit these days. Other than Stanton, none of these players were absolute doormats in 2023, but neither were they anywhere close to the best hitters on their team.

I didn’t have the Red Sox as the winners here on my mental math. Masataka Yoshida was a disaster in the outfield in 2023, but still hit a healthy .289/.338/.445. Although he was much worse in the second half, I could see Yoshida adjusting much better in his second year stateside, but even his 2024 batting line would top the other four hitters here.

Giancarlo Stanton has a lot more variance than three batters above him in this group. If he hits .250/.320/.480, he’ll be easily the best hitter of the bunch. But I’ll believe in Stanton’s resurgence only after it happens.

Bottom Line

Here are the overall rankings:

The Yankees stack up very well when compared with the division. Like the Orioles, they are solid all around. But they have three standout #1 ranks between Judge, Torres and Soto, while the Orioles only have Ruschman. Stanton and to a lesser extent LeMahieu are the only real standout problems on the Yankees.

The Red Sox are clearly in trouble. They are far behind at almost every position other than third base. But the Blue Jays grade out poorly as well, with poor showings across a number of positions.

We’ll see how the teams grade out in pitching. My plan is to rank every starting pitcher in the division in one big pile. I bet the Yankees look even better then. The race for the AL East is between the Orioles and Yankees right now.