Things I Think: Playoff Edition

By Andy Singer

September 30th, 2025

Many of you probably saw Paul's announcement this morning regarding a possible decrease in content around here for the next couple of months. As Paul noted better than I, rumors of our demise have been greatly exaggerated. While my time is similarly limited (though I don't know many people who do as much as Paul), you are fortunately (or unfortunately, as you're so inclined, but even disagreement creates good conversation) going to get a fair amount of writing from me over the next few months. While I am sadly traveling for much of the ALDS, I'll be back if things get interesting, and you'll likely see some writing from me even while I'm away.

With all of that in mind, I wanted to quickly get some thoughts on the page about the Yankees as we get into the first of hopefully 4 series on the way to a World Championship. This post won't include any of my usual formatting, and it is something of a stream of conscious, but hopefully you enjoy it. Here are the things I think:

• I think most outlets are really underselling the Yankees' offense as we come into the playoffs. Sure, their recent performances have been against the soft underbelly of the American League, but there were also seriously good performances against winning teams earlier this month people seem to forget about. This is an offense that doesn't just hit homeruns. It was 8th in stolen bases (and they got faster at the deadline); it was tied for 2nd in all of baseball in on-base percentage; they were right around league average in doubles; and they were tied for 2nd in sacrifice flies, if productive outs are your thing. The truth that few are willing to acknowledge is that the 2025 offense is so, so much more well-rounded than in 2024.

• In 2024, the Yankees went to the World Series on the back of an offense that relied on 2 players and a rebuilt pitching staff. I'd take the 2025 team over 2024 every day of the week.

• The Yankees will not have an easy path to the World Series in 2025; in fact, I'd argue it's a much more difficult path than in 2024. The Yankees have to beat a formidable Red Sox team in the Wild Card round; Toronto in the ALDS (if they advance, of course); and one of Seattle, Cleveland, or Detroit in the ALCS. All of those represent tougher matchups than the Yankees faced in 2024 on their path to the World Series. The Yankees will sure be battle-tested if they make it that far.

• I also don't want to get ahead of myself, so let's get back to the task at hand: the Red Sox.

• We all have players that we like for reasons that have nothing to do with logic and performance. Sometimes, we just like the way some guys play the game.

• I have always liked watching Lucas Giolito pitch, since he was a prospect. He was an all-world prospect, fell off terribly due to some questionable coaching changes to his delivery and arsenal, got hurt multiple times, and still persevered to pitch quite well. Aesthetically, I like the way he throws. Though it's good for the Yankees' playoff fortunes, I really feel for the guy that his elbow is barking again. You never want to see a team beaten due to injury; I'm hoping the Yanks sweep, and Giolito's injury becomes a footnote rather than a feature in the story of the 2025 Wild Card round.

• The Red Sox have a very good offense that ranks well in overall numbers, but many of those are helped significantly by two guys who won't play in this series: Rafael Devers and Roman Anthony.

• Alex Bregman and Trevor Story have rebounded to have good seasons, but neither is really a middle-of-the-order hitter. The biggest threats they have are some good platoon players, including old friend, Rob Refsnyder.

• Refsnyder is another guy who I've always liked watching, and I'm thrilled that he's finally found a home and a path to some MLB success.

• That said, if Rob Refsnyder is hitting in the middle of your batting order, you have some issues.

• The Yankees' pitching staff matches up incredibly well with the Red Sox's batting order...as long as the bullpen does its job...which is a scary caveat, talented though the Yanks' bullpen really is.

• Back to the Yankees' offense: we know all about the big boppers; I believe strongly that eventually, Aaron Judge will snap out of his postseason funk; he's too good not to. We also already know which Giancarlo Stanton typically shows up in October.

• But I don't want to focus on them, for once.

• I want to focus on Austin Wells, who had a disappointing sophomore campaign. I have maintained that he got hurt in his last Spring Training game, aggravated it on a foul tip in game 1 of the season, and spiraled from there (oh, and add a nerve issue to the regular drain that catching everyday brings). Wells played a ton in the season's first half, then got a lot of rest between July and August. Some of us (looks at self in the mirror) wanted Wells to get a lot more rest in April and May, but at least it finally happened.

• It might have paid off. Very quietly, here's how Austin Wells performed from the completely arbitrary date of August 20th through the end of the season: .271/.319/.553.

• Why do I find that so interesting? That is almost exactly what I predicted his healthy numbers to look like prior to the start of this season.

• I think Wells is the healthiest he's been all season, and it shows. Also of note: Wells hit better this season both with runners in scoring position and in situations defined as High Leverage by Baseball Reference.

• I think Wells is going to be a star for the Yanks this postseason, and it starts against the Red Sox.

• The Yankees will face lefty monster Garrett Crochet in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round tonight.

• Aaron Boone has a lineup built for flexibility. While Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm have had good recent performances against left-handed pitching, I think the Yankees should be smart here and start Amed Rosario at 2B and Jose Caballero at 3B (or flip them, whatever works). Brian Cashman acquired two pieces that can really run the bases and hit left-handed pitching. Aaron Boone needs to use them. I'm all in favor of making some serious lineup changes after both of them get 2 at-bats, but I think the Yankees need to deploy a lefty killing lineup against Crochet. It feels weird to sit Rice and Chisholm in the first playoff game, but it doesn't make the move any less correct.

• Interestingly, Crochet performed worse against the Yankees overall than he did against the rest of the league. The Yankees can get to him...that doesn't mean that this game will be easy by any stretch of the imagination. I think runs will be at a premium tonight.

• I referenced the need for Boone to use the flexibility available to him. This will truly be his greatest test as a playoff manager, as Cashman has provided Boone the most flexible roster he's ever had. The cherry on top? Giving Boone JC Escarra on the bench. It means that Boone should feel comfortable moving Rice and Wells around as needed, knowing he has a premium defensive catcher who's comfortable with the staff ready on his bench. Aaron Boone has a safety net to get creative and create matchups that favor his team.

• Again, I think the Yankees have the most talented roster in the AL; it needs to be managed correctly.

• Alex Cora has a history of asking his teams to be absurdly aggressive against the Yankees. History tells us he's not wrong: put pressure on the defense or baserunners, and hope they make a physical or mental error. That strategy has worked against the Yankees over the years. It's the single reason why, even though the Yankees are better than the Red Sox on paper, I am very worried about this series. The Red Sox won't just lay down. Cora will push every button he has available to go at the Yankees.

• I made it this far without talking about the pitching staff.

• Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are as good a 1-2 punch as exists in this year's playoffs. The best version of Fried seems to be reappearing at exactly the right time. Rodon has proven that he can keep teams in games even when he doesn't have his best stuff...and when he does have his best stuff, he's as good as anyone in baseball, only he's more well-rounded and can change strategies mid-game in a way he couldn't earlier in his career. I am very confident in those two.

• Cam Schlittler was far-and-away the right choice to be the #3 starter in the playoffs. He put an exclamation mark on his candidacy in his last start of the year. Only aces are capable of Schlittler's level of dominance when he's at his best. He's green, but he's ready for the spotlight. His fastball is dominant, and he is learning to really tunnel his cutter and short slider beautifully, even though he uses the two differently (Statcast refers to all of these pitches as a cutter, but they are clearly two distinct pitches, with one being the cutter and the other being a high-80s, low-90s slider with a bit more movement and depth than the slider). He's grown since his blowup against the Jays; Schlittler is ready to step up.

• Some were probably surprised to see that Luis Gil didn't make the Wild Card roster. He would have been lined up to pitch on short rest almost the entire series, and given his injury history, I don't think they were comfortable putting him in the bullpen until the ALDS. I think that story will change by the ALDS, though, and he'll be a weapon out of the bullpen.

• Speaking of the bullpen, this is a talented group...volatile, but talented. Would it shock anyone if the combination of Williams, Cruz, Weaver, Doval, and Bednar were unhittable for a few weeks? Unfortunately, it also wouldn't shock anyone if at least 3/4 of those guys fall flat on their face. I might have a coronary event after the starter leaves the game this year.

• That said, I love David Bednar. Every time he goes out to the mound, he looks like he's ready to put his head through a brick wall to win a game. I love that in a closer, and I think it plays in October. People who pay attention to statistics as heavily as I do typically diminish the importance of a closer. Anyone who has watched the Yankees the last couple of years can tell you how important that position is, and how different having confidence in that guy really is.

• David Bednar was built for October baseball. He throws hard, strikes guys out, is stingy with hits, and just looks menacing on the mound. That's the guy I want late in the ballgame. Everyone else looks better with him closing games.

• These games against the Red Sox will set the tone for October. I think if the Yankees look dominant in this series, it will carry them through the playoffs. If it's a rough series, buckle up.

• I still think the series will be hard-fought. Ultimately, I think the Yankees will sweep the Red Sox. I hope we don't need Cam Schlittler until Game 1 of the ALDS.

• I'm standing by my preseason prediction: I think the Yankees will play the Dodgers in the World Series again, this time winning in 7 games. I have no reason to go back on that prediction now!!! They exceeded my expectations by winning 94 games (I predicted 92 wins); I hope they do it again.