by EJ Fagan
December 2023
***
NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
***
After acquiring Soto, Grisham and Verdugo, the Yankees have five players for four OF/DH slots. I think that there’s a pretty strong case to be made that the best lineup does not involve Giancarlo Stanton at DH.
I’m not sure that we’ve all reckoned with just how bad Stanton was last year. After May 1st, the big man hit .179/.272/.398. His season-long wRC+ of 89 wasn’t all that different from that of glove-first guys like Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka.
Stanton’s performance was also worse than Trent Grisham’s 91 wRC+. Grisham is a strong defensive center fielder. Playing him would allow the Yankees to DH Soto and play a superb defensive outfield of Verdugo, Grisham and Judge. If I had to win a game tomorrow, I’m pretty sure that Stanton isn’t in the starting lineup.
If Stanton did not have four years and $98 million remaining on his contract, he would not be on the roster. It’s not that hard to find a DH that can hit better than 89 wRC+. Daniel Vogelbach was just released by the Mets after posting a 109 wRC+. There are literally hundreds of MLB hitters the Yankees could acquire who would improvements over Stanton’s 2024 season.
That said, Stanton isn’t going anywhere. $98 million is a lot of money to just eat. The Yankees are going to give him the chance to bounce back, if only to lower the price tag for a salary dump, or to give him a chance to suffer a major injury that their insurance might cover. They also aren’t just going to straight bench him; Stanton is going to be given a chance to right the ship.
So what should the Yankees do with Stanton?
Stanton starts against all lefties
Even in the middle of a disaster season, Stanton hit a strong .265/.324/.618 against left-handed starting pitchers. Alex Verdugo has pretty strong splits the other way. The Yankees can play Stanton either in the outfield or move Soto over to left against a lefty, reserving Verdugo for a big pinch hitting and defensive replacement role.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Stanton’s decline has been only against right-handed pitching. We’ve seen a huge increase in big sweeping sliders over the last two years.
Stanton’s unique closed swing is always going to struggle against hard stuff away. Lefties don’t have the same weapon against him. He’s clearly the best DH they have against a left-handed starting pitcher, and maybe the Yankees see a few more of those now that they have actual left-handed hitters in the lineup.
Stanton sits against tough righties, plays against weak ones
I don’t have powerful enough splits to pull the numbers, but it sure felt like Stanton couldn’t catch up to big right-handed velocity last year. Any fastball-slider combo was kryptonite to him. The Yankees should sit Stanton against any righty that he doesn’t profile well against, playing Grisham in his place.
At the same time, Stanton should play against weak righties. If someone is going to hang pitches in the middle of the plate, Stanton can still hit them to the stratosphere. It doesn’t make sense to carry a right handed, platoon-only bat in today’s game. I envision Stanton starting about half of games between weak righties and lefties. Hopefully he can learn to pinch hit.
Bottom Line: It’s Time to Admit Decline
Giancarlo Stanton is 34 years old. Most players his age are on the way out. Here is a pretty typical aging curve from Fangraphs:
Stanton’s career up until 2023 had almost perfectly followed the standard MLB htiter aging curve. He played his best through his 58 home run season at the age of 27. Then, he declined a bit, posting wRC+ around 130-140 through his 31st birthday. Then, beginning at 32, the curve got steeper. He fell off a cliff a little bit more than normal at 33, but nothing out of line with the typical player’s trajectory.
All of that is to say that we shouldn’t be surprised that Giancarlo Stanton just had the worst season of his career. We shouldn’t bet on him regressing back to his career numbers, or even his 2018-2021 levels.
If the Yankees decide that Giancarlo Stanton is a legend who deserves to play every day, they will probably fail. He has immense physical talents and a long career in baseball, so I wouldn’t rule out a bounce back. But he has to prove it. If Stanton hits in a more limited role, he can earn more playing time. If he doesn’t hit, he should earn less playing time. Lots of aging players with better careers played key part time roles on the 1996-2001 Yankees. Stanton should be no different.
Stanton's closed batting stance has his eyes looking sideways as against right handed pitching. When the Martian comes back , and he is healing quickly, Stanton will only DH a against lefties.
Boone in the beginning of the season when asked if that was possible, replied "not yet". That speaks volumes
I hope the Yankees don't fall into the Sunk Cost Fallacy with Stanton and keep him around just because they're paying him so much. The real calculus is whether you would trade Stanton for a roster spot and a marginal cost of the MLB minimum. Stanton's oWAR last year was -0.5. A new replacement player (i.e., 0.0 WAR) costs $750,000. In 2022 (the last year for which I can find data), 1.0 WAR = $4.52 million. So if Stanton does not rebound, the Yankees are better off DFA'ing him and substituting a replacement-level player. That said, I'd give him a chance as the DH vs. lefties to see what he can do, but if he can't manage at lea…
This drop-off corresponding to losing quick twitch speed happens. Sometimes a player like Matt Carpenter make the effort to re-evaluate his hitting approach and can have a comeback.
Stanton needs a "come to Jesus" revelation and do the same.
I keep bringing this up, but I am a huge fan of Richard Schenck...and even with the success that he has had with Judge. Rizzo, Refsnyder, and Kerry Carpenter, no one with the Yankees have reached out to him to find out what is his "secret sauce" that turns careers around.
He claims--and I think he is right--that if the team hired him as a consultant, he could train the coaches at all levels, and revamp the organization's approach to developing…
What I would do? It's simple to start with - medical tests, a complete sports lab test too, with fresh eyes. Is it a straight decline? Absolutely not when he still has the bat speed. It's something physical. Now can the physical be fixed or not? Plus, you just might have to park him on the 60 day list to really fix him. Then you gotta be ready at some point post ASB to DFA him.
as Paul would say, they can afford to sit Stanton
and they can afford to DH Soto.
spend the big bucks on pitching.
play Verdugo and Grisham in the outfield, Rizzo at 1B and there are 4 lefties in the line-up