What If?

What if the Yankees?

…Mid September Thoughts from Cary Greene

***

My mind is racing with “What if the Yankees” thoughts of late. Even last night, (Monday, 9/15/2026) I was watching not one, but two ball games. The A’s were giving the Rays a heck of a game, with the score tied 1 to 1 going into the bottom of the ninth-inning. Meanwhile, the Yankees were leading the Twins 3 to 1 in the bottom of the fifth-inning. The stage was set. What if the A’s somehow were to beat the Rays in extra-innings and what if the Yankees could scratch out a win over the Twins I thought?

Continuing to wonder what if, I did the quick math and determined that if these two things happened, the Yankees would cut into the Rays lead and they’d only trail the Rays by 2 ½ games with 11 games left to play. It was then that Junior Caminero hooked an 0-2, 100.4 mph 4-seamer dealt by the A’s Elvis Alvarado down the right field line and into the seats, giving the Rays a walk off win right before my stunned eyes. “How quickly a properly struck 345-foot fly ball can change a game,” I lamented as my coffee spilled all over my new Tommy Bahama coral colored polo shirt!

I began thinking about Aaron Boone and the Yankees and how they’re bringing Aaron Judge back so slowly. I’ve decided that their approach is a little bit questionable, while I do understand perhaps only playing him in the outfield a few times a week, not feeding him at-bats is robbing him of a chance to get in sync. Since Judge has come back, he’s batting a paltry .190 with a .561 OPS. With the Yankees now cemented in this year’s postseason, I would think having Judge firing on all cylinders would be in the Yankees utmost best interests. Am I wrong here? What if the Yankees had him bat in every remaining game on the schedule? Would doing that risk Judge getting injured, or would it help him get ready for elite postseason pitching?

Before I could get further upset regarding the Yankees handling of Judge, Spencer Jones (in the other game I was watching, hit a 423-foot 3-run jobber of his own - a blow that would have been a home run in all but two MLB ballparks (Fenway and Coors Field). The shot cracked a tight game wide open and I began breathing a sigh of relief. I wondered aloud, “What if the Yankees had traded Jones for a reliever at the Deadline?!” I’m not sure that would have been a very good idea.

As I watched the Yankees beatdown of the Twins, I began to pay attention to how the Twins attacked each Yankees batter. Talk about different approaches being deployed! Wow. That’s the way baseball is nowadays though. Every team has a plethora of data that can be used to form individualized plans on how to approach each batter.

Soon after focusing on how the Twins were tackling the Yankees lineup, I began wondering - assuming the Red Sox are going to be the Yankees first postseason opponent, will Boston use similar approaches while featuring markedly better pitching? I was trying to gauge whether or not this Yankees team is primed to go deep into the postseason.

Looking at Monday’s 9/16/2026 8-1 Yankees win provides a snapshot as to how the Yankees lineup is being approached by opposing pitchers and how each hitter is handling the opposition’s game plan. Here’s what I noted as I watched the game and then studied the results.

1.     The Twins approach against Ben Rice was to locate the ball away. Rice had 16 pitches in the zone to hit and he was dealt another 19 out of it. 4 of the strikes however were total meatballs (two 4-seamers and two 2-seamers, all were right down the middle). Rice took the first fastball he saw for a called strike, then he stroked the next one he saw for a single. After that, he lined out and then flew out on the last two. Aside from the fastballs he saw, the Twins fed Rice a steady diet of offspeed pitches.

Clearly the approach used by the Twins pitchers was to paint the outer and lower edges of the zone and expand a tiny bit on that. Rice has been the Yankees best hitter this season and the Twins weren’t looking to give him many good pitches to hit. On the season, Rice owns a .357 OBP and though he didn’t show it last night, he has very strong strike zone recognition. Going forward, Rice needs to continue to take his walks, while looking to jump all over pitches that are teed up for him, because in the postseason, he’s not going to see many of those.

2.    Cody Bellinger had 5 pitches in the zone to hit, but only one was down the middle, with the four others being up and in or low and away. The Twins threw him 9 other pitches, all outside high, middle or low. Again, pitch recognition is the key for Cody and to his credit, he punished the one mistake he got, by launching a first inning 2-run smash off of Bailey Ober’s 89-mph fastball that was right down Broadway. Bellinger somehow also singled twice and to his credit, he also walked once. His approach is pretty phenomenal of late, but opposing pitchers are being very careful with him.

3.    Heliot Ramos was thrown 8 pitches in the zone, 4 were on the black inside and belt-high, while 3 were out over the plate and one was up and in but clearly a strike. The Twins were locating low and in on him and they were then trying to get him to climb the ladder. Considering that he went 2-4 with a walk as well, I’d say he did a nice job of fighting off how the Twins were attacking him. Will postseason opponents continue to give him some hittable pitches, thinking they can get away with it?

4.    The Twins approached Luis Garcia with an off the plate high and outside, low and inside strategy. They gave him 5 pitches in the zone, while all of the other 13 pitches were off the plate. Garcia responded by grounding out twice, flying out and striking out swinging a ridiculously low change-up that the bottom fell out of. He also managed to smack a single off of a four-seamer that was in the zone.

Garcia is eager to strike the ball for sure, perhaps he’s being too aggressive. If he could have laid off all the balls the Twins were throwing him, he could have worked some favorable counts or better yet, he could have taken a walk or two and that would have made all the difference for him. This continues to be a theme for Garcia, as evidenced by his paltry .317 OBP - he’s not taking his walks and he’s inviting opposing pitchers to try to lure him into chasing. Improved strike zone recognition is needed for Garcia.

5.    And now for Spencer Jones, who is the reason I decided to take the team’s pulse at the plate last night. Jones had 6 pitches in the zone, 4 of which were belt high sliders right down the pipe. 1 was on the black inside and 2 were on the black outside. 5 of the balls the Twins threw him were low and outside and another 4 were way low and inside. Out of 18 total pitches, the Twins threw him only two fastballs.

Jones is receiving a steady diet of offspeed pitches and occasionally, he gets one out over the plate. For Jones, it’s all about recognizing mistakes while being willing to take more pitches. He’ll improve his OBP if he can lay off all the low and outside pitches he’s being fed. Jones owns a .331 OBP, but if he could adjust, he’d be .350+ very easily.

6.    George Lombard had 13 pitches in the zone. The Twins didn’t show him much respect and he paid them back by singling twice, driving in a run and walking as well. If I’m the Yankees, I have to like the way he handled the zone and avoided going fishing on the 11 pitches out of the zone that he refused to be fooled on. Lombard worked himself into some hitter’s counts and the results were solid. It appears that the Twins wanted to get Lombard to chase, but he forced the Twins pitchers to work in the zone last night.

Lombard is starting to recognize Big League breaking balls and he’s fouling off a lot of 4-seamers as well. For Lombard, it’s all about staying balanced and improving his pitch recognition. He’s already proven capable at hitting mistakes, so his next challenge is to barrel up balls more consistently.

7.    The Twins threw 7 balls way low and out of the zone to Anthony Volpe, then they came back with a mix of offspeed pitches (sliders, sweepers and sinkers) that were up and in. They also tried to keep him honest by busting him inside with a couple of 4-seamers on the black. Volpe singled, doubled and walked, without striking out - showing command of the zone and demonstrating an ability to hit his pitch. Very encouraging.

Since coming back up, Volpe has a .956 OPS, so right now he’s the man. If he stays hot, the Yankees would be wise to continue to play him and this could cause an issue with Jazz Chisholm at the keystone. It’s very late in the season to ask Chisholm to play third base and Volpe has no Big League experience there, so something will have to give when Chisholm comes back. If I’m the Yankees, I think I like my chances with Volpe right now.

8.    Ali Sanchez got very little respect from the Twins, who put 6 balls in the strike zone of the nine he was thrown. While he did single once, the Twins tactics paid off as he grounded out, popped up and flew out on three of his at-bats where he swung at the first pitch. He also struck out swinging. Clearly, the Twins dared him to do some damage and he largely couldn’t square the ball up. It’s too bad that the Yankees couldn’t muster a better option than Sanchez, it’s less about his approach than it is about his hitting ability (or lack thereof).

Since there is almost no reason to play Sanchez in the postseason, taking him out of the lineup eliminates what could be a dead spot in games that will suddenly matter a lot.

9.    Jose Caballero’s night can be summed up by much futile effort and little to show for it. The Twins didn’t throw him a single solid strike in the zone, but they did 6 strikes called on the black. Caby didn’t walk once, despite being thrown 21 pitches well out of the zone (most were either way high, way outside or way low and outside. He’s allowing himself to be picked apart. With his speed, he could punish teams that toy around with him like this, but he’s been too overly aggressive for his own good. Imagine what would happen if he just took his walks. He’s a threat to steal and he wreaks havoc once he’s on the bases.

Caballero needs to learn that there are other ways to get on base than having to smack your way aboard every time up. Where is the Yankees hitting instruction here? This has been going on for several months now with him. As putrid as his .530 OPS is for September, it’s still 39 points higher than Ryan McMahon’s - which is why the Yankees are playing Cabby at third base a lot these days…it’s not like they have anywhere else to turn just yet. When Chisholm makes his way back, the Yankees may be forced into using a different plan at third base.

Now that we’re through looking at this valuable snap shot of an 8-1 Yankees win, what will happen if the Yankees face the Red Sox pitching staff in a three-game, winner take all Wild Card series? The Yankees offense is averaging 5.4 runs a game this September, though they’ve been shut down by the likes of Walker Buehler, our old pal Mike King, Zac Thornton and Christian Scott - the Yankees aren’t the same anemic, pre Trade Deadline bunch that they once were this season. On the other side of the ball, Yankees pitching has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of the 13 September games they’ve played.

Given the way most of the Yankees hitters are handling the League’s game plans and factoring in the staunch pitching they’ve benefited from, I’d say the Yankees, who coincidentally are playing .700 baseball this September, are indeed ready for the playoffs.

There are a few main concerns though. Not having Aaron Judge in peak form is becoming a big deal. Also, with Carlos Rodon on the upswing and Max Fried looking better, the Yankees chances against the not so hot (of late) Red Sox look pretty promising.