What if the Orioles Start Spending Money?

by EJ Fagan

February 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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There are a few good candidates for the worst owner in baseball, but Peter Angeles is no longer one of them. The Baltimore Orioles are now owned by a group led by billionaire David Rubenstein.

We don’t know a lot so far about Rubenstein et al’s plans for payroll on the Orioles. But it will definitely be higher than what the Orioles have spent over the last few decades. Just a few weeks ago, I rated them as the cheapest MLB team. No matter how much higher Rubenstein expects to go, I think it’s safe to conclude that the balance of power in the AL East just changed.

There are a few good candidates for the worst owner in baseball, but Peter Angeles is no longer one of them. The Baltimore Orioles are now owned by a group led by billionaire David Rubenstein.

We don’t know a lot so far about Rubenstein et al’s plans for payroll on the Orioles. But it will definitely be higher than what the Orioles have spent over the last few decades. Just a few weeks ago, I rated them as the cheapest MLB team. No matter how much higher Rubenstein expects to go, I think it’s safe to conclude that the balance of power in the AL East just changed.

So what could we expect out of the Orioles under new ownership? I offer three scenarios.

The Orioles Go Full Atlanta Braves

The current powerhouse that is the Atlanta Braves has been years in the making. That team slowly brought up young stars and locked them into long-term deals. Now, they have a huge core of great players signed to affordable deals for most of the 2020s: Acuna, Albies, Strider, Riley, you name it. They then added older players like Murphy, Olson and Sale to supplement their young core, and locked many of them up long term as well.

This scenario would be the five alarm fire outcome for the Yankees. They haven’t been able to respond by building their own young core. Free agents can’t compete with a full roster of young players in their prime. Even after the Dodgers spending spree, I think the Braves have a better roster. The Mets aren’t even trying to compete with the Braves either. The Yankees would be at best a Wild Card team through most of the Judge/Cole/Soto era if the O’s go this route.

The Orioles Go Full Toronto Blue Jays

The Orioles right now have two young stars and a third potential star: Adley Ruschman, Gunnar Henderson and maybe Jackson Holliday. They have some other strong supporting players and now Corbin Burnes, but aren’t nearly as deep as the Braves ended up. In the Braves scenario, they keep filling out their roster with great young players and extend their current group. But what if they don’t?

The 2021 Blue Jays looked like a powerhouse in the making. They had brought up Manoah, Guerrero, Bichette, Gurriel and others, signed Springer and Ryu, and were poised to spend more money.

And then not a lot happened. They didn’t extend their young players, many of whom are on the verge of free agency. Other than Kevin Gausman, their free agents didn’t work out well. They never really managed to put a powerhouse team together and didn’t keep bringing up young players. The window is now probably closed, with the Yankees clearly back ahead of them.

Basically, it’s hard to build a powerhouse roster. You would have to convince your core of young players that they want to hitch their wagon to the team long term. You also need a lot more than three players. The Padres tried a version of the Braves plan, but ended up with a ton of expensive free agents and an albatross contract in Tatis Jr.

Maybe Ruschman and Henderson want to stay in Camden Yards for 15 years. Maybe they want to bet on themselves, not sign and extension, and let the Dodgers or Yankees or whatever pay them way more than they would make in an extension.

The Orioles Go Full Seattle Mariners

The Orioles are undeniably a small market team. Maryland is a rich state, but Baltimore is a small city. I have them estimated at about $400 million in gate and television revenue in 2023. The typical team with that kind of revenue spent about $120 million on payroll last year. With Burnes, the Orioles are already at about $115 million.

To make matters worse, the Orioles might be one of those small teams that struggle in baseball’s coming TV apocalypse. Because they co-own their regional sports network with the Nationals, they aren’t immediately affected by the Diamond Sports Group problems. But, I imagine they will struggle to replace their $60+ million in regional sports revenue as more households cut the cord.

Rubenstein’s new ownership group may not want to go full Steve Cohen on the major leagues. They might want the team to turn a profit. If that’s the case, they might not be able to add a lot more to the current roster than is currently there. They might even need to trade Ruschman and Henderson as they become more expensive, like the Mariners this offseason.

Which Scenario is Most Likely?

I want to pour a little cold water on the Braves scenario. A lot of teams bring up a few young stars at the same time. Only Atlanta has managed to bring up a dozen of them and sign them all to team-friendly long term contracts. The Orioles might want to try a Braves strategy, but no other team has managed to pull it off.

A Mariners scenario is probably more likely than the Braves scenario, but there are variants. What if the Orioles are better at managing their roster than the Mariners? They have a young core. Maybe they can keep the core, but not spend a lot of money to fill out the roster. They lose some TV revenue, but compensate by filling Camden Yards for a decades.

One thing to keep an eye on: there are still some pretty good free agents out there. Maybe new Orioles ownership wants to sign Blake Snell or Cody Bellinger. I concluded that the Yankees were slightly ahead of the Orioles when I did my AL East rankings, but adding Burnes and one of those guys would put the O’s firmly ahead.