Who Should Be the Yankee 3rd and 4th Starters in the 2025 Post-Season?

by Robert Malchman

September 25, 2025

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We’re at the point where a debate about the Yankee post-season rotation after Max Fried and Carlos Rodon is becoming relevant.  Anyone can consider the overall records of Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren, but I don’t think how any of them do against the Orioles or White Sox is going to be of great relevance. 

So I isolated each of their starts against the most plausible post-season opponents: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Seattle and Toronto.  Here are their totals against those opponents:

Quite obviously, against the best teams in the AL, Gil has been head and shoulders above his rookie colleagues.  His walk rate and BB/K ratio is unsightly, but he doesn’t give up runs or hits, not like the others have done.  Add in that Gil has post-season experience (even though he performed poorly last year), and making him the No. 3 starter looks like a no-brainer.

That leaves the No. 4 starter up for consideration should New York make it to the ALCS.  Schlittler has the better ERA than Warren, but the slightly worse WHIP.  Their K rates are remarkably similar.  So I’d be tempted to decide based on who the opponent is.  For example, Schlittler didn’t face Boston, but the Red Sox raked against Warren in his 3 starts against them: 14.1 IP, 15 ER, an ERA over 9.00, so Schlittler is my Game 4 guy there.  Likewise, Schlittler didn’t face Cleveland, but Warren was effective, 2 ER in 5 IP.  The question I have is whether showing the Guardians a new face would be better or worse than having the guy who handled them once before.  

Against Seattle, Warren was outstanding, 2 R, 0 ER, 10.2 IP.  Schlittler’s 3 ER, 5.1 IP doesn’t recommend him in this match-up.

Both faced Houston and put up similar numbers, 5 IP, 2 ER each.  Likewise, Warren and Schlittler were both effective against Detroit, the former 6.0 IP, 2 ER; the latter 6.0 IP, 1 ER. 

For these opponents, probably the better question is who would be more effective coming out of the bullpen?  I could see planning to piggy-back them with each going through the order about twice.

Toronto is the biggest potential problem.  Warren got stomped in his one start, 8 ER in 4.0 IP.  Schlitter was so-so in one start (5 IP, 2 ER) and awful earlier this month (1.2 IP, 4 ER).  If Ryan Yarbrough is truly healthy and his last appearance just an aberration, I’d be sorely tempted to start him in a Game 4 against the Jays (who have a very slight OPS platoon disadvantage against lefties).  After Schlittler’s September 5 debacle against Toronto, Yarbrough restored some order with 5.1IP of one-run ball.  But the hitters couldn’t do anything against Kevin Gausman, and additional runs allowed by Leiter and Doval sealed their fate.

My big hope, of course, is that Toronto blows the Division, and the Yankees get the bye. 

Next to that, I hope either the Yankees get the Jays in the five-game ALDS (i.e., no No. 4 starter), or that someone else knocks them out before the ALCS.  But for the first two post-season series, my No. 3 guy is Luis Gil.