Yankees Are Playing It Smart To Not Overbid for This Free Agent

By Derek McAdam

January 13, 2026

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It has been a very slow off-season for the New York Yankees, despite rumors flying left and right about potential trade and free agent acquisitions. And for the second off-season in a row, the Yankees run the risk of losing a one-year rental outfielder they acquired from a previous team. First, it was losing Juan Soto to the New York Mets on a $765 million contract, and now it may be Cody Bellinger.

According to numerous reports, the Yankees and Bellinger have reached a standoff in contract negotiations, with the Yankees  offering 5 years, $150-160 million and Bellinger’s team wanting more money per year and overall years. Because of the high demands, it seems as if the Yankees are expecting Bellinger to sign with another team, since they are set on the $30 million AAV over five years.

And despite what many Yankee fans may think, I do not fault the Yankees for standing their ground. Bellinger is a solid player and a player that will definitely change how the lineup looks. But Yankee fans have seen time and time again about overpaying for players and the contracts end up costing them several years down the road.

For example, following the 2020 season in which he completed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Yankees, D.J. LeMahieu was set to hit the free agency market after hitting over .300 in both seasons (included the shortened COVID season.) Yankee fans, including myself, did not want LeMahieu to sign with another team, due to his solid offensive and defensive abilities.

So Brian Cashman awarded LeMahieu with a six-year, $90 million contract that would last through the 2026 season in which he would be 38 years old. And with each passing season, his offensive numbers declined while his defensive abilities similarly took a plunge. It is not to say as if each season was much worse than the previous one, but the numbers showed he was on the decline.

In Bellinger’s case, he will be 31 in July and is likely at the peak of his career now. His athleticism is going to diminish in the outfield, which would not be the worst-case scenario since he can also play first base. But the Yankees would likely want to give Ben Rice an opportunity to get reps every day at first base, who I think deserves to play every day in hopes of developing his defense.

I am worried that if the Yankees decide to bite the bullet and offer Bellinger seven years, which is what his agent Scott Boras is seeking, they are going to end up in a similar situation as LeMahieu’s where the final few seasons put the team in a bind. They are already dealing with Giancarlo Stanton’s large contract, while still having to cover LeMahieu and Marcus Stroman’s contracts, both of whom are no longer on the team.

So the seven-year contract would take Bellinger through his age-37 season, which is not horrible, but it seems as if it is too big of a commitment to make. It also does not seem likely that Boras wants to meet in the middle and go with six years, maybe on some sort of vesting option for that sixth season either.

And looking at similar contracts signing this off-season, Kyle Schwarber re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies on a five-year, $150 million contract, while Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles on a five-year, $155 million deal. I think this is the appropriate range for Bellinger, even though he has more athletic ability than either of these players and had a higher WAR last season.

Boras must also believe that another team will come in and offer Bellinger more years and money than what the Yankees are offering if he is so willing to play hardball. Remember, Bellinger was a top free agent after the 2022 season that was projected to get a contract worth more than $200 million, but ended up taking a short-term deal in the meantime. I can understand Bellinger wanting a long-term deal that can take him close to retirement, but his own agent screwed him once and could possibly do it again.

Luckily for Bellinger, the Mets are still in the mix for an outfielder and have been linked to Bellinger all off-season. The Los Angeles Dodgers have spoken with Kyle Tucker, but if he signs with another team, the Dodgers could call Boras and ask about a potential reunion with Bellinger. Or maybe the Toronto Blue Jays would like to acquire Bellinger in hopes of that sending them over the top in a potential World Series matchup.

It could also be that Bellinger thinks these other teams have a better chance of winning a World Series than the Yankees, which is definitely true for two of those teams;. But no matter what the case is, it does not seem as if the Yankees have done anything wrong in this scenario. Yankee fans have to get over the fact that George Steinbrenner has not been running the team for nearly 20 seasons now. We are not in the same era, and they are not going to get the top two or three free agents every off-season.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the Yankees’ offer to Bellinger is a fair one. He is a very solid player that will create a hole in the offense and defense. But he did not propel us to a World Series run and did not produce much at the plate during the playoffs. And the Yankees should not try and bet against themselves for Bellinger’s services like they did with Gerrit Cole and likely numerous other free agents throughout the years. We will likely see soon enough where Bellinger will be playing in 2026 and beyond.