By Mike Whiteman
January 7, 2024
*** With the change of the calendar to another new year, the baseball world settles into a bit of a slumber. Sure, there is work to be done, especially in the Yankees front office, but much of the drama is done, with the most compelling of moves completed last month. Of course, Yankee fans await news on how Brian Cashman will fortify the pitching staff.
The next real big baseball news comes with the announcement of the new players elected to the Hall of Fame. Voting results are to be revealed on January 23rd, but for Hall of Fame junkies like myself that’s way too long to wait.
So, I get my fix at the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker, where votes are tallied as revealed.
As of Saturday morning, January 6, 32% of all ballots have been revealed. Some comments about players of interest:
Adrian Beltre - Being on 98.4% of the revealed ballots, Beltre looks to be cruising to induction. A career with 3166 hits and 477 homeruns will do that.
Todd Helton - The longtime Rockies' first baseman came oh so close to enshrinement last season (72.2%). He's now on pace for his day in Cooperstown with 82.1% voting.
Joe Mauer - Count me as slightly surprised at Mauer’s early showing of 82.1%. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s Hall deserving, but thought it could take a couple years on the ballot to get there.
Billy Wagner - Another player who came pretty darned close (68.1%) last season. Wagner has two years to go over the 75% mark, but would certainly like to end the suspense now. If his 80.5% voting sustains, he will.
Gary Sheffield - "Back in the day", a career with 509 home runs, .292 batting average and nine All-Star appearances would be certain HOF material. With Sheffield, it hasn't been that easy. Ties - on his own admission - to PEDs seemed to give voters pause. Until now. Early voting of 75.6% indicates that he may be making the significant leap. Going from 55% to election in his last year on the ballot would be quite impressive, and in my opinion a big deal. Andruw Jones - The longtime Braves center fielder is at 67.5% and primed to make a small improvement in voting. Can he close the gap in his last three years on the ballot?
Carlos Beltran - His current pace of 66.4% would be a 20% increase over last year, his first on the ballot. There was talk of him being "punished" by voters in his first election due to his involvement in the Astros cheating scandal. It seems that many have changed their tune for 2024.
Alex Rodriguez (41.5%) and Manny Ramirez (39%) show a slight increase for the PED tainted candidates. Neither are anywhere close to election. Now, is the revealed voting a reliable indicator of final results? For those at the top of the voting, it seems like final voting comes up a bit shy of the previously revealed ballots. Here's a look at the top vote-getters from 2023 Scott Rolen - 80.4% "pre-votes"/76.3% final Helton - 74.5/72.2 Wagner - 71.3/68.1 Sheffield - 57.3/55.0 Jones - 61.4/58.1 Previous years' voting seem to show similar trends. So, I'd say that candidates who garner about 80% of the voting in early revealed ballots can expect the call they have long been waiting for later this month. How do YOU think the Hall of Fame voting will turn out?
