By Mike Whiteman March 10, 2024 I’m back at it again, using projected WAR to predict the winners and losers in 2024.
The projections that I use are Depth Charts from Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/). This system combines the player projections from the well regarded ZiPS and Steamer projections, and an allocation of playing time by Fangraphs staff.
Like the past few of years, I decided to use the Depth Charts projections to add wins to each team starting from replacement level (which baseball-reference.com states to be 48 wins). How accurate is are these projections? Like many systems, it's a mixed bag. Here is last year's article: https://www.startspreadingthenews.blog/post/2023-projection-fun
See the projected 2024 standings below:
Now, first look at these standings indicated that the wins and losses don’t really add up, and basically the overall records are a bit better than they really will be. That being said, I still think we can draw some conclusion from the numbers:
1. Fangraphs has faith in the Yankees bouncing back and thinks the Orioles are due for a significant regression from their 101-win season of 2023. In fact, the Yankees are projected to have the best offense in baseball outside of Atlanta. Wouldn’t that be quite the turnaround from last year’s anemic attack.
2. After their offseason spending spree, the Dodgers will be very good…but still not as good as the Braves.
3. Even in an exercise with slightly inflated wins, the Nationals and Rockies are both projected to lose over 90 games. These are two very bad teams. In fact, Colorado is projected to have the worst offense in baseball, even with their home park advantage. What in the name of Blake Street is going on? 4. While the elite teams are pretty well spelled out, there are a number of teams that with some good luck could move into the the playoff hunt. The Mets, Rays, and Red Sox particularly are projecting higher than most folks are predicting. 5. How would adding Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell help a team? Fangraphs projects both to be worth about three wins. If replacing Clarke Schmidt in the rotation with one of the lefties, they add about a win or two to the season win total for the Yanks. Things look good right now for the Yankees. Maybe this really is their year!
