More On Runs Scored and Winning

by Dusty Writes

February 27, 2026

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I agree completely with Paul Semendinger's recent article about the Yankees offense producing all these runs, but noting that they also consistently fail in the postseason year after year.

Like Dr. Semendinger noted, the Yankees crush poor pitching and pile up these batting stats against bad teams, but when they play the better teams and better pitchers, their offense often gets completely shut down.

Many fans and media believe the Yankees have a great offense because they led MLB in runs scored last season. Leading the league in runs scored, in many instances, is very misleading. It is not how many total runs you score, it is when you score them.

For example, let's say a team plays a best of five postseason series. The first two games, this team scores 17 runs and 15 runs and wins these games easily. Then the next three games they lose by scores of 2-1, 1-0, 3-2.

The stats will say this team averaged 7 runs a game. It sounds as though this team had a great offensive series. But in reality, this team's offense was completely shut down most of the series, and this offense was actually subpar in the series, as 3 of the 5 games they were dominated by the opposition's pitchers. 

The Yankees offense, not only last season, but in many seasons since 2010, often accumulate runs in bunches, but fail to win the close games and have lacked situational hitting in many instances.

Now, I'm not saying my way of evaluating a team's offense below is perfect, but here is another way to evaluate a team's offense that I have never heard mentioned before:  Looking at a team's run output game-by-game as measured against the league's average run-per-game.

The average runs per game per team last season was 4.45 runs per game. Therefore, if a team scored 3 runs or less in a game, we could say the offense did not do a good job. Even scoring 4 runs a game is below league average. So let's say a team scoring 4 runs or less in a game had a poor (below average) offensive game.

Scoring 5 runs or more a game is above league average, and therefore considered a good offensive game.

Breaking down a team's offense game by game is a much better way to evaluate a team's offense than by taking the total amount of runs for the season.

According to Baseball Reference, the Yankees in 2025 scored 0-3 runs 56 times, and scored 4 runs 24 times. 80 times. For almost exactly half the season, the Yankees offense was below average. (In 82 games last season, the Yankees scored 5 runs or more in a game.)

Based on this method, how do we evaluate the Yankees offense? They score below average almost as much as they score above average.

The larger issue, however, is not the regular season. According to Statmuse, since 2010, the Yankees played 89 postseason games. They won 42 and lost 47, for a .472 winning percentage. During these 89 games, the Yankees have had 2,968 at bats (a very large sample size). The Yankees have batted only .222 in these 89 games, scoring only 4.2 runs per game. If we eliminate the weaker postseason teams that the Yankees routinely crush, such as Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, the Yankees postseason runs per game scored since 2010 would average about 3.5 runs or less per game. The Yankees also average 9.6 strikeouts per game on offense in these 89 games. The Yankees batters almost always strike out more than their postseason opponents.

The 2025 Yankees scored more than league average in 50.6 percent of their games. Let's contrast that against their last World Series Championship team. In 2009, the AL league average in runs per game per team was 4.82 runs. The 2009 Yankees had 93 games in which they scored 5 or more runs, therefore they scored above league average in 57.4 percent of their games. 

The 2025 Yankees had weak spots in their order such as Volpe, Wells, McMahon. The 2009 Yankees had no weak spots in their regular batting order. There is no comparison whatsoever between the 2025 Yankees infield, and the 2009 Yankees infield that was one of the greatest in history. 

Only the terrible teams, (Angels, Rockies), struck out more than the Yankees in 2025. By contrast, in 2009, only the Orioles struck out fewer times than the Yankees. But that is misleading because the Yankees in 2009 struck out only one more time than the Orioles, but the Yankees batters that season had 216 more plate appearances than Baltimore, so the Yankees actually had the best contact hitting team in the league in 2009.

The 2009 Yankees batted .283, 16 points better than league average, and only 2 points below the Angels league leading .285, according to Baseball Reference.

Will anything change this season in the Yankees batting philosophy that will enable them to win a World Series this season? When the Yankees had their dynasty and won 4 World Series from 1996-2000, they never led the league in homeruns, they never were really that close to leading the league. By contrast, the Yankees have by far the greatest home run hitting team in MLB since 2010, and yet no world championships.

If the postseason is a roll of the dice, or luck of the draw, as some people believe and a anything can happen proposition, how have the Dodgers won 3 World Series in 6 years and 5 pennants in 9 seasons? The Dodgers won more pennants in the last 9 years than all the NL teams combined. That doesn't seem like it's the luck of the draw, not when it is the same team winning.

How did the Yankees establish one of the greatest dynasties in history from 1996-2000 if it was the luck of the draw, or a roll of the dice? Had the 1994 postseason not been cancelled, the Yankees may have won the 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 World Series. They came within one inning of winning in 2001. That's a tremendous amount of postseason success for it to be the roll of the dice.

The Yankees had better overall team batting stats than the Dodgers, but which team has a better offense, more clutch hitters, better situational hitters, the Dodgers or the Yankees? The Dodgers the last two seasons have had a better offensive team than the Yankees, which emphasizes how misleading total home runs, runs scored, etc. can be.

Statistics, such as a team's season's total don't include clutch situations, situational hitting,, and etc. in many instances.

Despite the Yankees offense leading MLB in home runs and runs scored in 2025, I'm sure many fans, including many Yankees fans, would prefer the 2025 Dodgers offense to the 2025 Yankees offense.