by Mike Whiteman
January 21, 2024
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On Tuesday, January 23, we all will find out who will be joining Jim Leyland next July for induction in the Baseball Hall of Fame. I don’t know about you, but with recent winter weather I’m rather pleased to be thinking about anything summer. As I've said before, I'm a Hall of Fame junkie. This is a great time of the year for me, I enjoy the anticipation, the tracking of early revealed ballots, and the announcements on MLB Network. I'm also planning a trip to Cooperstown when the weather gets warm. It's great stuff. I am not afforded an official vote in the election, but that doesn’t keep me from completing my own ballot anyway. Here are the players I would vote for:
Bobby Abreu – I don’t think that Abreu gets his due as a player. I get that later in his career defense seemed optional for him, but for a long time he was a very good all-around player. Typical of the non-respect that Abreu received: In 2000, he slashed .316/.416/.554 with 28 stolen bases, above-average metrics in right field, and 6.2 WAR. This got Abreu nothing in the way of recognition – no All-Star game selection, zero MVP votes. The same thing basically happened in 2002. Abreu was also a pretty good Yankee – slashing .295/.378/.465 towards the end of his prime. I still remember how the team jelled after his pickup in 2006. For fourteen years, Abreu averaged .295/.399/.484 with 20 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Eight times he drove in 100 runs. What a hitter he was!
Carlos Beltran – Another player whose sum exceeds the individual parts. Only once did he finish in the top five of in MVP voting, but his career totals of 2725 hits, 435 home runs, 312 stolen bases along with three Gold Gloves in centerfield make a very compelling case for enshrinement. Beltran of course is reviled by Yankee fans for his role in the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal. The Hall of Fame voters have a complicated relationship with cheating, as some is considered “crafty” like scuffing the ball but other cheating like technical and chemical is shunned.
Adrian Beltre – The third baseman’s career numbers - 3166 hits, 477 home runs - ensure his induction. These stats were certainly assisted by the fact that he started as an everyday player at age 20 and was a regular right up to the end of his career at age 39. Beltre’s career is the essence of “finishing strong.” Up through his age 30 season in 2009 he slashed .271/.325/.454 and was an above average fielder – which is not bad. The rest of his career: .307/.358/.514!
Todd Helton – The “Coors Field” debate reignites with Helton being so close to admittance to the Hall. While his career home slash of .345/.441/.607 was just ridiculous, his .287/.386/.469 road slate wasn’t too shabby either. He was a Gold Glover at first base too. Helton's basically the all-time face of the Colorado Rockies. Put it all together, and he gets my vote.
Andruw Jones – How much does defense matter in Cooperstown? Before his career fell off a cliff at age 31, Jones averaged 33 home runs, 100 RBI per season for eleven years with a good but not great OPS+ of 114. It's defense though that is getting Jones widespread Hall of Fame support. Defensive stats are so hard to quantify and put into context. Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average (Rtot) seems me to be as good as any. Rtot, per baseball-reference.com, is an effort to quantify a “total defensive contribution”. Jones was worth 253 runs above average in his career, second all-time, behind only Brooks Robinson and just ahead of defensive legends Ozzie Smith and Roberto Clemente. He also ranks ahead of the center field standard, Willie Mays. Jones also owns two of the top ten single seasons of all-time per this standard. So, the eye test (his ten Gold Gloves as an outfielder are only eclipsed by Mays and Clemente) and stat standard seem to align to this point – he’s one of the greatest fielders, at any position, of all time.
Andy Pettite - We all know Pettite and what he meant to the Yankees. It would be pretty awesome to see him inducted with Rivera and Jeter nearby. His stats and his admitted PED use probably will keep him out, but the Hall can do (and has done) worse. As one of my favorite Yankees of all-time, I just couldn't keep Pettite off my ballot.
Joe Mauer – The nine-year stretch of 2005-2013 in which Mauer lashed .323/.406/.466, won three batting titles, an MVP and three Gold Gloves has been well documented, and is among the best stretches in history by a catcher. His WAR7 – the sum of a player’s best seven seasons of WAR – is fifth among all catchers in baseball history, so I’m convinced. Being a catcher for a long time is very hard, and I don’t feel a strong pull of longevity in making my voting decision. My hope is that the induction of Mauer (and the likely eventual admittance of Buster Posey) sheds light on other catchers with shorter careers and high peaks. I particularly think of Thurman Munson, who is eighth at the position in WAR7, was an MVP, multiple Gold Glove winner, and a .357 postseason hitter. Let's hope Thurman joins his fellow Yankee legends in Cooperstown as soon as the next opportunity comes up.
Gary Sheffield – I really struggled with Sheffield.
His “baseball card stats” of .293 with 507 career home runs would historically provide an easy path to Cooperstown, But….there’s smoke around him regarding PEDs. The standard I used for Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds is relevant here: Sheffield never failed a drug test, and from the time that baseball’s testing program began in 2003, Sheffield slashed .284/.380/.502, which wasn’t far off his total career mark.
I don't feel great voting for someone with a PED history, but as the Hall has enshrined managers and the commissioner from "The Steroid Era", I'm a bit torn about the way forward. Ask me tomorrow about this, and I could change my mind.
Billy Wagner – The value of a closer is something that the BBWAA is grappling with as more and more relievers come up for voting. Wagner was very good - 422 saves are sixth of all-time; his 187 ERA+ is among the best of all-time. He allowed only six hits per nine innings, which was almost a full hit less than Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. He’s knocked for his 10.03 postseason ERA, but it’s hard for me to hold this against him too much considering the sample size of 11.2 innings. Something interesting to watch. Wagner’s first year on the ballot resulted in receiving 10.5% voting, and he’s now on the verge of induction. Francisco Rodriguez has 437 career saves including the single-season record of 62 in 2008. What will his trajectory look like? So, that’s my ballot. I really wrestled with Chase Utley. For five years (2005-2009), Utley was a great player. Living in the Phillies’ media market, I got to watch him a lot and enjoyed it greatly. My hesitation in voting for him is that outside of that period, he was an average player and I wrestle with the 2015 takeout slide that likely ended Ruben Tejada’s career. “Back in the day”, this was hard-nosed baseball. Was this OK in 2015?As this is his first year on the ballot, I've got time to further consider Utley's candidacy. These are my picks. Who would be on YOUR ballot?
