On: Joey Votto

Joey Votto announced his retirement yesterday and has many people thinking of his future HOF chances. Let's talk about it...

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Comparing the 2029 BBHOF 1B Candidates:

During last nights Yankees game, I found out that Joey Votto announced his retirement from baseball. I then spent a good portion of the game chatting with my father about Votto's candidacy for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Joey Votto will be eligible for the Class of 2029, at the same time as fellow first basemen Miguel Cabrera and Eric Hosmer. It is common knowledge that Miguel Cabrera is a lock for becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and on a similar vein, it is also a pretty universal thought that Eric Hosmer will not be long for the ballot.

So, where does Joey Votto stand? Is he a Cabrera, a Hosmer, or is he something else?

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Quick Stats:

Miguel Cabrera:

Awards: MVP (x2), Triple Crown, Silver Slugger (x7), Batting Title (x4), All-Star (x12), World Series Champ

Counting Stats: 21 Seasons, 2797 Games Played, 3174 Hits, 511 Home Runs, 1881 RBI's

Rate Stats: .306/.382/.518 Triple-Slash, .901 OPS, 140 OPS+, +67.1 bWAR

Eric Hosmer:

Awards: Gold Glove (x4), Silver Slugger, All-Star, World Series Champ

Counting Stats: 13 Seasons, 1689 Games Played, 1753 Hits, 198 Home Runs, 893 RBI's

Rate Stats: .276/.335/.427 Triple-Slash, .762 OPS, 107 OPS+, +18.5 bWAR

Joey Votto: Awards: MVP, Gold Glove, All-Star (x6)

Counting Stats: 17 Seasons, 2056 Games Played, 2135 Hits, 356 Home Runs, 1144 RBI's

Rate Stats: .294/.409/.511 Triple-Slash, .920 OPS, 144 OPS+, +64.5 bWAR

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Votto Was His Own. A Great, But Not Legendary, Player:

Like I stated earlier, it is no question that Miguel Cabrera is a sure-fire, no doubt about it, first ballot hall of famer. He has 500+ home runs, 3,000+ hits, and a triple crown. There is no need for further discussion here.

It is also quite obvious that, while Eric Hosmer had a great and fruitful MLB career, he will be honored by making the ballot and falling off after a single year of voting. He will likely get some back-ballot votes from Kansas City writers as a "Thank You" for his contributions to their 2015 World Series title.

Meanwhile, Joey Votto never got the live in a massive spotlight. His teams made just 4 playoff appearances and never advanced past their first round of playoffs. Votto also was overshadowed by other players in his league during his career. Albert Pujols took home 4 All-Star appearances, a Gold Glove, and 3 Silver Sluggers between 2007 and 2011. Paul Goldschmidt has taken home another 7 All-Star nods, 4 Gold Gloves, and 5 Silver Sluggers from 2011 to 2024.

So, on the career trophy case, Votto was never going to stand up to Miguel Cabrera.

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Votto is also greatly lacking in the accumulation department.

Though had a great career, his 2,135 hits ranks just 219th All-Time (and a total 295 players have reached 2,000 career hits), Additionally, his 356 home runs rank 92nd All-Time (and 100 players have 350+ career home runs).

Meanwhile, Miguel Cabrera is ranked 16th all-time for career hits (3,174) and 25th all-time for career home runs (511).

Again, Joey Votto doesn't come close.

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However, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto have a bWAR difference of just 2.6. Obviously, this is in favor of Cabrera (67.1) over Votto (64.5) but this puts them incredibly close. But, how close?

Well, Miguel Cabrera comes in as the 11th best first baseman in MLB history by JAWS.

Joey Votto comes in as the 12th best first baseman in MLB history by JAWS.

This may seem crazy. Miguel Cabrera meets, and far exceeds, the 4 biggest metrics for predicting Hall of Fame candidacy (Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOFm, and HOFs), while Joey Votto only meets or beats one metric (Gray Ink). So, what does this mean?

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Long story short, I think this is incredibly telling of WAR (and JAWS).

Joey Votto will likely take many ballots to make the hall of fame, and his counting metrics alone would tell a story of a player who likely doesn't make it (much like Willie Randolph or Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly or Victor Martinez).

However, WAR helps to bridge the divide between him and his contemporary (Cabrera) who easily will clear the barrier for entry. And, this is because WAR goes against Miguel Cabrera in two ways. First, Miggy was not a great defender (he never had a plus or zero dWAR season). Second, over his final 7 MLB seasons, Cabrera had a combined -2.7 bWAR.

If we take away those 7 seasons from Miguel Cabrera, he ends up with 69.8 bWAR, 2,519 hits, and 446 home runs. If we compare that to Joey Votto's whole career: 64.5 bWAR, 2,135 hits, 356 home runs, it shows a better picture for how vast the difference is. Cabrera has a +5.0 bWAR, near 400 hit, and near 100 home run lead. This is even more damning when you consider Votto had an extra 3 MLB seasons over this shortened version of Cabrera's career.

And, if we add back those final 7 seasons, they also allowed Miguel Cabrera to get to 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. Those final seasons moved Cabrera into rarified air and made him a sure-lock, even while being detrimental to his overall rate metrics.

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Joey Votto will likely make the Hall of Fame one day.

However, it will take the right arguments and considerations to get him there. I think his case is already strong, as 60 bWAR tends to be the arbitrary cut-off for where a player needs to be above to have a strong case for the Hall of Fame. However, I also think that his lack of legendary status, while being on the same ballot as Cabrera, will go against him.

And, maybe by that day when Votto ultimately gets in, other great first baseman like Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly may have gotten their day of induction as well. Adding three great, and likely deserving candidates to forever be remembered.