Reading Some Winter Meetings Tea Leaves

By E.J. Fagan

December 9, 2025

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The Winter Meetings begin today. We haven’t had a lot of firm Yankees rumors lately, but we do have some comments from Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner and a tiny bit of reporting. I’m going to take those little bits and spin out an irresponsibly grand theory.

The short version: Bellinger and Imai, plus a Jasson Dominguez trade.

The evidence

First off, some MLB Trade Rumors highlights:

• The Yankees are interested in Tatsuya Imai, probably competing against the Cubs and Phillies. Imai seems like he wants to go to a big market team and beat the Dodgers.

• The Yankees are reportedly interested in Kyle Tucker, but really interested in Cody Bellinger.

• They were never really interested in bringing back Devin Williams.

  
  

That’s basically all we have. But Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner both gave pretty candid (by owner/GM standards) interviews over the last month.

Hal’s interview was a little less revealing, but I’ll flag a few things:

• He acknowledged that the Yankees have a problem with mental/baserunning mistakes. Pretty sure that this is the first time that a member of the Yankees have admitted that this is a problem for them.

• He wouldn’t say if the Yankees made a profit.

• He noted that there isn’t a firm budget, but rather that he would be willing to go above whatever line for the right player.

  
  

There was a lot of fan outrage over the second point, but I think that is misdirected. I’m outraged too, but not as a citizen rather than a Yankee fan. Hal didn’t say that the team was losing money. He just didn’t say that they were making a profit. No cash poor equity rich family business wants to make a big profit, because profits are taxed. The Yankees likely engage in all sorts of tax avoidance schemes to make sure they technically don’t make a profit. Yet, Hal owns a very large yacht.

The third point is more revealing to me, but I’ll save that for the next section.

Brian Cashman sat down with YES to discuss the winter meetings in a surprisingly insightful interview:

Lots here. My highlights:

• He said nice things about Imai but wouldn’t go into details.

• He reiterated that he doesn’t have a firm budget and that Hal would approve contracts on a case-by-case basis.

• He said that Volpe’s shoulder injury was a lot worse than expected once they opened him up. Reading between the lines: Volpe’s damage probably didn’t hurt even if it effected his play, or if it did he sucked it up and played through it.

• He said that they would love to add a starter and it wouldn’t be a bad thing if one of their current starters is pushed to the bullpen when Cole and Rodon return.

• He said that teams were asking a lot about Will Warren.

• He said that they were too left-handed but wasn’t sure if they would solve the problem in the off-season or via mid-season trades.

  
  

He said that the bullpen is on the backburner.

So what are the Yankees going to do? I have four predictions.

Cody Bellinger is 100% Coming Back

They aren’t really hiding it. Brian Cashman has said that they love Cody Bellinger a bunch of times since October. They are clearly negotiating dollars with him.

What about Kyle Tucker? My guess is that the Yankees are holding him out as a possibility in order to keep Bellinger’s demands from getting too high. If Bellinger wants some extreme amount of money, the Yankees could pay a little more and get Tucker instead. MLBTR has Bellinger at 5 years, $140 million right now. I’m guessing that they end up around there as well.

It all reminds me of the trade discussions for Bellinger a year ago. The Cubs wanted him off their payroll. Everyone and their mother could see that he fit perfectly on the Yankees. They negotiated for awhile over a relatively small amount of money retained by Chicago.

Eventually, they split the difference and agreed on the trade. I’d bet on a very similar process this year. They both want a reunion and are pushing for a few million dollars here or there.

The Yankees Will Bid Big on Tatsuya Imai

Every Yankee fan observed that the Yankees were going to have trouble staying under the $304 million luxury tax threshold when Trent Grisham accepted his qualifying offer. If they also resigned Bellinger, the budget was basically spent. So what was up with the Imai rumors?

I think that Hal and Cashman’s comments about reviewing contracts on a case-by-case basis are clearly referencing Imai. We don’t have any real connects to other players right now, and frankly few big money deals make much sense. The Yankees could use another pitcher. Cashman even acknowledged that having a surplus when Cole and Rodon return isn’t the end of the world.

There’s also a real business case for Tatsuya Imai. The Yankees used to have lots of extra Japanese attention when they had Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka on the team. The Dodgers have proven that investment in Japanese players can pay off. Cashman can probably justify the extra Imai money with extra revenue. Bing bang boom, the Steinbrenners approve spending more than $304 million.

Obviously, they have to compete against other teams for Imai’s services. Someone could put in a stupid big offer. But I’m a little heartened to hear that the Cubs and Phillies are their competition. Those are big market clubs, but they aren’t exactly the teams that put in big dumb money for a player.

If they miss out on Imai, I wonder if they’ll move on to Shota Imanaga. Especially if the Cubs get Imai.

Jasson Dominguez is Trade Bait

Cashman talked a lot about “challenge trades”, although it didn’t feel like he was referring to something specific. What he basically said was: GMs are always talking conceptually about trades. You never know when something big will develop from those conversations.

What big trades make sense for the Yankees? Other than maybe Ryan McMahon or someone like Austin Wells, I don’t see a lot of candidates. And given that Cashman acknowledged that they were too left-handed, Dominguez makes sense.

Your guess is as good as mine as to who the Yankees could get for Dominguez. He has a ton of value given how young and talented he is, but the Yankees roster is also pretty well set. Dominguez isn’t being trade for a bench player or relief pitcher.

Maybe Cashman doesn’t know who he would trade Dominguez for either. He’ll listen and wait for someone to blow him away with a “challenge trade.” Worst case scenario, he holds on to Dominguez for a little bit longer. I don’t think that a Triple-A stint is unreasonable given his struggles on defense and from the right side.

No Big Relief Pitching Moves

I’ve seen some speculation that the Yankees could be in on someone like Edwin Diaz, but Cashman and Hal aren’t giving off that vibe. Unlike Imai, the case for a $20m+ salary for Diaz isn’t clear.

Would I love to have Edwin Diaz as my closer? Hell yes. He’s the best reliever of his generation. He’s been a 96th percentile or better in xERA since 2021. If the budget were $350 million, he makes a lot of sense. But a Diaz signing died the moment that Grisham accepted his qualifying offer.

But the Yankees could do nothing this offseason and have a fine enough bullpen. Bednar is a great and consistent closer. Camilo Doval, Fernando Cruz and Tim Hill are solid relief pitchers. Add in Ryan Yarbrough and a few lottery tickets and they’re okay until the trade deadline.