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The Tuesday Discussion: Fun Predictions

September 20, 2022

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We decided to have some fun this week with some quick and simple predictions. We sent the following to our writers:


We're at the point where the pressure of what's to come will make the final weeks interesting.

Let's make some simple predictions:

  • How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with?

  • How many wins will the Yankees end with?

  • Who will be the American League Wild Card teams?

And two from the rest of the MLB...

  • Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers?

  • Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown?

  • Who will the NL Wild Card teams be?

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Paul Semendinger:

  • Judge ends the year with 64 homers.

  • The Yankees will have 95 wins

  • The A.L. Wild Card teams will be the Rays, the Jays, and the Mariners

  • Pujols will end with 702 homers

  • Paul Goldschmidt will not win the Triple Crown.

  • The N.L. Wild Cards will be the Braves, the Phillies, and the Padres.

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James Vlietstra:

  • Judge…64 Homers

  • Yankees…97 wins

  • AL wildcard…Tampa, Toronto, Seattle

  • Pujols…yes

  • Goldschmidt… no

  • NL Wildcard…Mets, Brewers, Padres

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Lincoln Mitchell:

  • How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with?-63

  • How many wins will the Yankees end with?-97

  • Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners

  • Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? I wish I could say yes, but I have a feeling he will come up a little short.

  • Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? No, and it won’t be very close.

  • Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? Braves, Padres, Phillies

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Cary Greene:

  • How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with? - 65

  • How many wins will the Yankees end with? - 98

  • Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? - Rays and Blue Jays

  • Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? - No

  • Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? - No

  • Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? - Braves, Padres, Brewers

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Ed Botti:

  • How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with? Based his average HR per game (.4041) and estimating he will play in 12 of the final 16 games, I project 64 Home Runs.

  • How many wins will the Yankees end with? I project an 8-8 record over the final 16 games, bringing the season total to 96 Wins.

  • Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? Seattle, Toronto and Tampa Bay ( I would like to say Baltimore, but their first half was too much to overcome. But, they are a team on the rise in 2023).

  • Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? Pujols has 698 Home Runs and the Cardinals have 13 games remaining, I believe he will hit 700.

  • Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? He has a shot at batting average and RBI, but I do not think he will overcome Kyle Schwarber for the most home runs. He trails by 4.

  • Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? I believe Atlanta will catch the Mets and win the NL East and Milwaukee will catch the Phillies for a wild card. My NL Wild cards are Mets, San Diego and Milwaukee.

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Tamar Chalker:

  • How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with? 64

  • How many wins will the Yankees end with? 97

  • Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? Toronto, Tampa, Seattle

  • Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? Yes

  • Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? No

  • Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee

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Tim Kabel:

  • I predict Aaron Judge will hit 67 home runs. My preseason prediction was 54. People accuse me of drinking Kool-Aid. It was rather tasty.

  • I will stick with my original prediction that the Yankees will win 98 games.

  • The AL wildcard teams will be Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Seattle.

  • Albert Pujols will hit 700 home runs.

  • Paul Goldschmidt will not win the triple crown.

  • The NL wildcard teams will be the Mets, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.

***

Mike Whiteman:

  • Aaron Judge will end up with 66 home runs...and the Triple Crown

  • The Yankees will win 98 games

  • The Blue Jays, Rays and the.....White Sox will be AL Wild Cards

  • Albert Pujols will reach 701 home runs for his career

  • Paul Goldschmidt will not win the Triple Crown

  • The Mets, Phillies and Brewers will be NL Wild Cards






4 Comments


Cary Greene
Cary Greene
Sep 20, 2022

SABR's Table 5 seems to think the Yankees will win 97 games (Using opponents winning percentage cross referenced by the team in question's winning percentage. .603 vs .480 = an expected .610 winning percentage = 9.15 wins over remaining 15 games.


I'm going with 98 though, who knows!


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fuster
Sep 20, 2022

98 w/o breaking a sweat

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yankeesblog
Sep 20, 2022

I'll play:


Judge HRs: 63 (As soon as he passes Maris Boone will sit him out a lot)

Yankee wins: 96

AL WC: Rays, Jays, M's

NL WC: Mets, Padres, Brewers

Pujols: Yes

Goldy: No


Like
Cary Greene
Cary Greene
Sep 20, 2022
Replying to

If you hit on 96, you'll echo Zips and PECOTA's pre-season predictions. I've already lost, I predicted 89 wins to start the season. Hard to believe that after all that's happened this season, the team might actually win "only" 96 games. Only a few months ago, 105+ seemed easily reachable.

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