The Tuesday Discussion: Starting Players?

July 18, 2023

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Ed Botti came up with this week's question:

Each year (this year included) Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone address the media and explain what went wrong (this season it is at the ½ way mark). They give their explanations (injuries, match ups, etc.) which many Yankees fans view as lame excuses. But, giving them the benefit of the doubt seems to have become an annual rite of passage, for many. Now that we have a legitimate sample size (90 + games), I would like to ask one question to our writers (both supporters and detractors of Mr. Cashman). Maybe the answer will enlighten some of us one way or the other. Of the 6 division leaders in MLB, how many current Yankees would be starting on these teams?

Our writers replied as follows:

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Lincoln Mitchell - Any team in baseball would make room for a healthy Aaron Judge. Judge. That might mean making Judge the DH or moving some players around, but everybody would find a way to get his bat in the lineup. Volpe and probably would start on the Dodgers. DJLM would start on the Twins. Maybe a few others, but not too many.

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Paul Semendinger - There are not too many. Aaron Judge is great, but he's getting older and his injury history isn't the best. Harrison Bader shows flashes of brilliance, but his injury history is even worse. Might a team take a chance on Anthony Volpe? Maybe. The kid has over 300 Major League at bats and it hitting .206. Is that what a starting shortstop on a championship team looks like? He might be the future, but he isn't the now. I don't think there is anyone else. Boy, if that's not an inditement about this roster's construction, I don't know what is.

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Ed Botti - I looked at the Braves. Even if you take Judge over Acuna and Bader over Harris, both have played much less this season than their Atlanta counterparts have played. That's not a great look for Brian Cashman.

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Cary Greene - Though he’s presently injured, the Yankees Aaron Judge comes to mind as obviously the only player capable of slotting into any Division leader’s starting outfield. Granted, he had a career year this past season in what will forever be known as the most absurdly phenomenal walk year in free agent history and he probably won’t ever again come near the numbers he managed to put up, but he’s the epitome of production.

Another player who easily starts for over half of this season’s Division leaders is surprisingly, none other than Gleyber Torres. The Dodgers would happily swap Miguel Vargas’s production for Torres and a case could be made that a

number of other’s like the Rays, Reds, Guardians and Orioles would all enjoy upgrading to Torres level productivity at second base.

Believe it or not, Anthony Volpe could also possibly start on at least one of baseball’s current Division leaders - the Guardians. He’s also start on at least half of the teams in baseball. Today’s game is about the kind of hits a player gets and the damage the player does. OPS is a simple calculation, wOBA or wRC+ are advanced ones and if we use any of these, Volpe possibly starts by a very slim margin over Amed Rosario.

Could Kyle Higashioka or Jose Trevino start for a team like the Rays, who prioritize defense and get very little offense from their catchers? I could see their front office liking either of the Yankees catchers very much.

Another player to mention in a positive light is Harrison Bader because he easily starts for the Guardians over Myles Straw, but obviously he’d be out luck on any of the other current Division leaders.

Anthony Rizzo could possibly start on most second and third tier teams in baseball, but there’s no way he’d be able to crack any of this year’s Division leaders.

It’s fair to say the Yankees actually do have five players who would be varying degrees of appealing to some of the current Division leaders in baseball this year

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Andy Singer - Here’s my team-by-team comparison, noting which Yankees I would take over division leading starters, with the following caveat: this assumes all players being compared are currently healthy. Without further ado:

Braves

OF – I would take Judge over Rosario for sure, and when push comes to shove, I’d take him over Acuna as well (though that’s a really close one).

CF – When healthy, Bader is one of the best all-around CF in the game today. Harris is solid, but I’ll take Bader.

SS – The shocker. I’ll take Volpe over Arcia in a heartbeat. Arcia has been playing way over his head, and is already coming back to Earth. I believe very strongly in Volpe’s talent.

Reds

CF – Bader over Freidl is an easy one. Freidl is a nice player, but he has zero pop, he’s posting an unsustainably high BABIP, and he’s nowhere near the defender Bader is in CF.

OF – Judge is better than anyone the Reds can put in the OF. No analysis needed.

C – The biggest surprise…I had no idea that the Reds were this bad at catcher. Stephenson is below-average offensively and well below-average defensively. Higgy/Trevino need to be upgraded, but at least they play good defense and call a good game.

OF – If he was healthy, you could convince me to take Jake Bauers over one of the Reds’ corner outfielders, if only because they are hitting way over their heads and play defense as badly as Bauers. It gets covered up by how small the Reds’ ballpark is.

*SS* - SS is a push for me. McClain is playing over his head, but I had he and Volpe ranked similarly as prospects. Both will be good for a long time.

DH – Yes, I’ll take Stanton over Jake Fraley and whoever else the Reds put there.

Dodgers

RF – I would take Judge over Heyward…that’s self-explanatory (Mookie Betts has mostly played in the infield this season, so this gives the Yanks a bit of a bump).

CF – Bader is a better player than James Outman. Outman has been solid, but he has some huge regression coming, with a low walk rate, a strikeout rate closing in on 35%, and an unsustainable BABIP.

SS – Volpe is better than Miguel Rojas. It would be a more interesting argument had Gavin Lux played this year.

Rays

OF – Judge over any of their corner outfielders is an easy one.

CF – Bader over Siri, though this is Bader’s closest call yet. Siri has huge pop and can pick it in CF, but Bader is a much more well-rounded player.

2B – I’ll take Gleyber over Brandon Lowe. Gleyber is a superior hitter, and save for some recent gaffes, a better defender as well.

Guardians

2B – Gleyber vs. Gimenez is a close one. Gimenez is a great defender at 2B, makes contact, and can run well. Gleyber, while frustrating, has a more impactful bat, and is an average defender in the aggregate. I’d run with Gleyber over Gimenez.

DH – Josh Bell is a terrible DH. Stanton has a far more impactful bat, despite his early season struggles.

SS – Do we even need to have this conversation? Rosario is nowhere near Volpe’s equal.

CF – Harrison Bader is heads and shoulders above Miles Straw.

OF – Judge is better than anyone in the Guardians’ outfield.

Rangers

OF – Judge is better than any outfielder the Rangers play daily.

CF – Bader is better than Leody Taveras.

Summary

This exercise surprised me in a way I hadn’t expected. From the outset of the 2023 season, the Yankees were built 1-2 offensive pieces short, and it would rely on pitching to get them either to the trade deadline or until one of the big-hitting outfield prospects was ready. This season has been awful offensively, and I’ve lost most of my faith. Of all things, the Yankees did better in this comparison than I expected. Negative regression is coming for many of the offenses I looked at in this exercise, while I strongly believe some of the Yanks struggling vets are due for at least a modest rebound. It’s getting late early, and the pitching staff is showing the strain, but this offense should be more middle-of-the-pack than horrific going forward with the pieces in-house already. That’s not enough to contend, but it’s better than I expected to say.