What if the Ben Rice Statcast Page is the Real Deal?

by EJ Fagan

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Ben Rice is off to a blistering start: .370/.528/.852 after today’s big game. He’s the #2 hitter in the majors by wRC+ despite facing some pretty good pitchers in the first two weeks of the season. It’s time to dream irresponsibly on a small sample size.

The big Ben Rice question coming into this season was: was he just unlucky, or is there some reason to believe he wasn’t his Statcast page? I couldn’t find any reason to believe it wasn’t just bad luck. Rice was probably one of the top 15 or so MLB hitters last season, but his numbers lagged behind a bit.

Of course, there was a second question to answer: could he do it again? Maybe Rice just had the best season of his career, but pitchers will adjust back to him. While he did put up some impressive numbers in the minor leagues, it’s hard to sustain that level of production.

Well folks, he’s doing it again. Gaze at this beauty of a Statcast page:

Rice leads the majors in xwOBA, average exit velocity and hard hit rate. He’s also taking his walks and not swinging at pitches outside of the zone. He’s striking out a decent amount but the contact is so good that he’s posting a .321 xBA. Really impressive stuff.

For me, the eye test matches the numbers as well. Rice looks bigger and more athletic. He works counts well. He seems like a smart guy with the right emotional capacity for the game. Zero red flags.

Obviously, he won’t end the season with a .514 wOBA. That’s beyond even Aaron Judge. But I think that MVP-level hitting is absolutely on the table. He could very well hit something like his 2025 expected line: .280/.360/.550-ish, roughly equivalent to a Kyle Schwarber/George Springer hybrid, but maybe he has upside even beyond there.

Let’s dream and assume Rice gets there. What does that imply for the Yankees?

First off, Rice would be about a 5 win player in that scenario. The projection systems have him in the 2.5ish WAR range. If you thought the Yankees were a 90 win team, they are now a 92-93 win team.

More importantly, Rice would provide, by far, the best protection that Aaron Judge has ever seen outside of Juan Soto. All Judge did playing alongside Soto was hit .322/.458/.701. Soto was playing in front of Judge, but Rice looks likely to hit behind him, where he can provide a constant threat if Judge were to get on base. Every Ruth needs a Gehrig.

Right now, Rice is batting 4th. But as much as I like Bellinger, Rice is hitting on another level right now. I’ve always thought that Bellinger’s reverse platoon splits were wasted behind Judge, so let’s make that adjustment. Here’s my Rice-is-Legit top six lineup against righty starters:

• 1. Grisham, 2. Judge, 3. Rice, 4. Stanton, 5. Chisholm, 6. Bellinger

  
  

Speaking of starters, I have trouble sitting Rice for Paul Goldschmidt if he’s hitting this well. Rice wasn’t terrible against lefties last year, although it was kind of a low OBP, high power profile that might not be real. Goldschmidt is great against lefties, so maybe Stanton sits? Hard decision for Boone.

Finally, let’s talk about the long term. Rice could be a middle of the lineup first baseman for the foreseeable future. He still has five years of team control left, including two pre-arbitration. Rice will provide a tremendous amount of value for his salary. Along with some of the other young guns on the team, Rice makes it easier for the Yankees to pay for other positions. And he should still be productive into Aaron Judge’s decline years.

Or it could just be a small sample size. But I’m more of a believer every day.